Moscow announced on February 16 the end of its military exercises in the annexed province of Crimea and insisted that “there will be no escalation” over Ukraine. However, NATO noted that more Russian troops are on their way to the borders. Amid US reports of a possible Russian attack in the next few hours, Kiev called on the population to celebrate “Unity Day” this Wednesday.
For the second day in a row, Moscow announced the withdrawal of more soldiers from the border with Ukraine, but Kiev and the West remain skeptical.
This February 16, the Government of Vladimir Putin notified that the military exercises in the province of Crimea, which was annexed in 2014, had ended, and that these soldiers are now beginning to return to their bases within Russian territory.
State television footage showed tanks, military equipment and infantry fighting vehicles on rail cars leaving the Russian-controlled region, with the Defense Ministry reporting in a statement that “units of the Southern Military District, after completing their participation in tactical exercises, they move to their permanent deployment points”.
Moscow’s ambassador to Ireland, Yuri Filatov, explained that between the end of February and the beginning of March the troops in the west of his country would resume their usual positions.
“What I can tell you is that, in about three to four weeks, the configuration of the forces in the western region of Russia will resume its normal standard posture (…) We are carrying out planned exercises with the Belarusian military forces that will end on the 20th of February and these troops will withdraw. They can check that next week,” he stressed.
These statements come after the Russian Defense Ministry made the first announcement on Tuesday, February 15, to return an unspecified number of troops stationed near the border with Ukraine.
“It remains to be seen if there is a Russian withdrawal”
The first steps of an apparent de-escalation of tensions taken by Russia are received with strong skepticism by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), the United States and the governments of the European Union.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg responded that, despite the withdrawal of some Russian soldiers, the alliance has signs that more soldiers are on their way to the area.
“It remains to be seen if there is a Russian withdrawal (…) What we see is that they have increased the number of troops and there are more troops on the way,” Stoltenberg said on Wednesday, at the beginning of the two-day meeting of the defense ministers of Russia. NATO, in Brussels.
Russia has had a significant military presence in eastern Ukraine since the Donbass separatist war seven years ago, whose biggest boiling point was the annexation of Crimea. In the last year, the number of military units has increased exorbitantly, in the north, east and south of Ukraine, at least around 100,000 troops, which has fueled fears that Moscow was planning an invasion of its neighboring country.
The Kremlin has always denied any intention to attack Ukraine, as the US and its Western allies claim, but has pushed for a set of security guarantees from the West, including a promise that Kiev will never join NATO. A claim strongly rejected by its counterpart so far.
Ukraine decrees “Unity Day” in response to Russian “threats”
US President Joe Biden indicated on February 15 that more than 150,000 Russian troops remain amassed near Ukraine’s borders and that an invasion remains “clearly possible.” He added that Washington had not yet verified any withdrawal.
Some US officials even assured that a Russian invasion would take place this Wednesday. In response to “hybrid threats”, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky signed a decree declaring February 16 as “Unity Day”.
“No one can love our home like we can. And only we, together, can protect our home,” Zelensky said.
Ukrainians raised and waved national flags in front of schools, hospitals and official buildings among other places, and played the country’s anthem to show unity in the face of fears of aggression.
“These flags are here for a purpose, to show that we are not afraid of anyone. They didn’t scare us,” said Mykola, who runs a small cafe in the Ukrainian capital.
“Everyone wants to scare us and we are here to stay,” added Ludmila, a retired woman.
Ukraine denounces a cyber attack against the Ministry of Defense and two banks
The Ukrainian Center for Cyber Security reported that hackers had intervened again, on Tuesday, on the website of the Ministry of Defense, on the pages of the Armed Forces and two state banks, Privatbank and Oshadbank.
The country’s government website servers already suffered a massive cyberattack last January, when authorities accused Moscow of being behind those actions.
Although this time Kiev did not name a person responsible, a statement suggested that it is targeting Russia.
“It is not ruled out that the attacker used small dirty tricks tactics because his aggressive plans are not working on a large scale,” Ukraine’s Center for Strategic Communications and Information Security said.
Cyberattack.
Ukraine says websites of the defense ministry and armed forces as well as two state banks were hit by a cyberattack that could have Russian origins.
The attack came the same day Russia said it was pulling back some of the troops deployed on Ukraine’s borders pic.twitter.com/N0Hj2fZbcM
— AFP News Agency (@AFP) February 16, 2022
The Kremlin denied it was behind any cyberattack, but said it was not surprised Kiev pointed it out.
Likewise, the Putin Administration reaffirmed in the last hours that “there will be no escalation” on Ukrainian soil. However, Moscow has already warned that it could take “military-technical” measures, which it has not specified, if its security demands are not met, including a rollback of NATO positions to the borders where they were in 1997, before ex-Soviet countries like Bulgaria and Romania joining the alliance.
Military analysts stress that a key indicator for a significant setback will be whether Russian field hospitals are dismantled, as are fuel reserves.
Furthermore, they indicate that it will be crucial if the Russian units, which are participating in extensive exercises with Belarus, finally end their operations and return to their permanent bases, thousands of kilometers away.
We will have to wait for the announced end of these drills next Sunday, February 20.
With Reuters, AP and AFP