According to HS-Gallup, the number one place in the demars would not be threatened.
Helsinki An opinion poll commissioned by Sanomat promises basic Finns a big election victory in Vantaa. According to HS-Gallup, the Basic Finns are rising past the Coalition Party to become the second largest party in Vantaa.
Neither of the Social Democrats seems to be threatening their number one position.
Demarie’s party support is 23.4 per cent, basic Finns’ 20 per cent and the Coalition’s 19.7 per cent.
The research institute Kantar TNS interviewed 1,001 Vantaa residents by telephone on 17–27 March. May.
The margin of error in the study is three percentage points in its direction, so the competition between the Coalition Party and the basic Finns may also be reversed.
If if the 20 per cent support of basic Finns is realized, the party would more than double its popularity compared to the previous municipal elections. Support for the 2019 parliamentary elections would be a couple of percentage points higher.
The stumbling block in the victory of basic Finns may be a decrease in voting activity in Vantaa.
There are nine percentage points fewer Vantaa residents who are sure to vote than in the corresponding period before the previous municipal elections.
In 2017, 62 per cent of HS-Gallup’s respondents in Vantaa said they would vote, but voting activity remained at 52.3 per cent at that time.
A similar drop between intentions and realization may this time mean a record low 43 percent turnout in Vantaa. This would even be below the base rate of 45% for the 2000 municipal elections.
Low turnout has been typical of Vantaa for a long time. A partial explanation may be that it is a migration victory with a population growing by 4,000 to 5,000 inhabitants each year. On the other hand, the migration victory is in Espook, where turnout is always higher than in Vantaa.
Low turnout has traditionally worked in favor of the Coalition. Even now, 75 per cent of the Coalition Party’s supporters said they would vote for sure.
61 per cent of the supporters of basic Finns were confident voters.
However, the most conscientious voters in Vantaa are the supporters of the Left Alliance, of whom 79 per cent say they will definitely go to the polls.
“In various contexts, researchers have come to understand that the Coalition Party has a way of going to the polls. If others do not vote, it will lead to a larger share of the votes cast, ”says Kantar TNS’s research director. Sakari Nurmela.
It has been typical for supporters of basic Finns to make a last-minute voting decision.
“This can sway the result right at the end of the campaign,” says Nurmela.
Nurmela emphasizes that HS-Gallup is not an unambiguous forecast of the election result. It is a description of the situation at a particular time before the election.
This became apparent in the last municipal election when HS-Gallup’s tip went wrong. Kantar TNS showed the Social Democrats in Vantaa a staggering victory and a coalition loss to the Coalition Party. However, based on the election results, the Demars were left without additional seats in the council, and the Coalition lost only one seat.
“If the supporters of the demars stay at home and the Coalition Party fights, the end result will look completely different. The now published HS-Gallup is a description of the situation at the beginning of the final letter, ”says Nurmela.
He stresses that it is very important for all parties to mobilize their own supporters.
“There is often a temptation to interpret the election result in such a way that votes would have slipped from one party to another. This is not necessarily the case, but there are differences in the turnout of supporters of different parties, ”says Nurmela.
A stumbling block on the victory path of basic Finns may be a decline in turnout. There are fewer people in Vantaa who are sure to vote than at the same time before the previous municipal elections.
The top three behind HS-Gallup promises the Greens a slight reduction in support compared to the municipal elections four years ago. At that time, the Greens in Vantaa increased their support by more than four percentage points to a total of 17.8 per cent.
Now the opinion poll promises the Greens 15.6 per cent of the vote.
The support of the Finnish center, the Christian Democrats and the RKP would not change much. Of the new parties, the Movement could now garner 1.5 percent of the vote, which could mean one council seat.
Council changes in the distribution of seats are difficult to predict based on party support. In the last municipal election, support for the demars declined by one percentage point, but the party still retained its 18 council seats as the last seat in the distribution went to the SDP.
Support for the Coalition Party fell by the same amount, or one percentage point, at the time, but the party lost one of its council seats. The Coalition Party has 17 seats in the current council.
If the Basic Finns receive 20 percent of the votes cast, the number of seats in the party may increase to 16–17.
Basic Finns can thus demand significant positions in trust bodies in the next council term. For the next four years, Vantaa may have either a basic Finnish chairman of the city government or a chairman of the council, depending on what the demars set as their number one goal after the election.
Demarie’s leading figure Antti Lindtman (sd) last elected the chairmanship of the city council, although the chairmanship of the board is a more important place in municipal policy.
The filling of the post of Deputy Mayor for Land Use will add spice to the upcoming election term. Current Deputy Mayor Hannu Penttilä (sd) is about to retire.
Wing the previous record-breaking 2012 election result for basic Finns, the group leader Jaakko Niinistö became Deputy Mayor of Vantaa Resident Services. Niinistö has since resigned from the party and lost his deputy mayor position in administrative reform.
How was HS-Gallup made?
The Kantar TNS research institute interviewed 1,001 Vantaa residents on behalf of Helsingin Sanomat.
The research material was collected through telephone interviews on 17–27. May.
The party support assessment has been prepared by combining the answers received in the interviews and the election statistics in the last parliamentary elections.
The margin of error in the study is about 3 percentage points for the largest parties in its direction.