Pecco Bagnaia wasted his first match point of the weekend in Valencia. Making the wrong choice of rear tire he was unable to do better than fifth place while his rival Jorge Martin imposed himself forcefully in the Sprint. A picture that allowed the Prima Pramac Racing rider to reduce the distance separating him from the reigning world champion from 21 to 14, leaving the possibility of winning the first MotoGP world title of his career still open.
It’s clear that it won’t be easy for him, because 14 points is still a lot to recover when there are 25 up for grabs and it leaves him with the possibility of only finishing in the top three places, but preferably by winning. And in this sense, among other things, we start from the assumption that if Bagnaia were to manage to repeat today’s result tomorrow, he would have the certainty of being champion regardless of Martin’s result.
Even if the Spaniard were to win, the two would be tied on equal points, but the Piedmontese would come out on top by virtue of the greater number of successes achieved in the Sunday races, given that at the moment the tally is 6-4 in favor of Pecco.
So let’s see together what are all the combinations that would allow the Ducati rider to win his second title in the premier class, which would be equivalent to something historic, given that in the MotoGP era only two legends such as Valentino Rossi and Marc Marquez managed to do so. a “back to back” undertaking. But also what are his rival’s options.
Here are all the favorable combinations for Bagnaia:
– If Bagnaia finishes in the top five positions he is champion regardless of Martin’s placing.
– If Martin finishes second, Bagnaia needs a top 10 finish to be champion.
– If Martin finishes third, Bagnaia needs a top 14 finish.
– If Martin fails to place at least in the top three positions, then Bagnaia is automatically champion.
And those who would instead smile at Martin:
– Martin is champion if he wins and Bagnaia doesn’t place better than sixth place.
– Martin is champion if he finishes second and Bagnaia places no better than 11th.
– Martin is champion if he finishes third and Bagnaia places no better than 15th.
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