On January 27, a conflict broke out in the Ferghana Valley on the border of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan with the use of small arms and mortars. The border guards of the two countries clashed in the struggle for control over the disputed territories in the most densely populated region of Central Asia. The result of the hostilities is at least 20 wounded, two killed, more than one and a half thousand evacuated. Details – in the material “Izvestia”.
What happened on the border of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan
It is difficult to answer the question “who is to blame”. The Kyrgyz and Tajik sides blame each other, without particularly specifying how a local dispute between villagers could turn into a full-fledged shootout in an hour with the participation of dozens of border guards from both sides. According to Dushanbe, the conflict began when the Tajiks tried to start construction work on the disputed territory. The Kyrgyz blocked the passage of the car with sand, then threw stones at it. After that, the inhabitants of the Tajik enclave filled up the strategically important Batken-Isfana highway with stones.
The border guards who arrived at the scene of the emergency unblocked the road, but the shooting had already begun in the neighboring village. Who started the shootout remains unknown.
According to the National Security Committee of Kyrgyzstan, “the Tajik side deliberately provoked an incident and clashes that led to casualties on both sides <...> opened fire on the military personnel of Kyrgyzstan using mortars and grenade launchers.” The Tajik security forces did not remain in debt and stated that “the actions of the border guards of Kyrgyzstan are an act of aggression on the territory of Tajikistan.”
For 7 hours there was an active firefight, the Kyrgyz border guards used machine guns, the Tajik military used mortars and grenade launchers. Judging by the relatively small number of dead and wounded, neither side took active action. This is markedly different from the previous border conflict that took place in April 2021. Then, in a few days, the Tajik military and local residents were able to occupy part of the Kyrgyz territory, destroying more than 200 buildings. As a result of that conflict, 36 citizens of Kyrgyzstan and 16 citizens of Tajikistan died.
However, there are similarities in the events. The Tajik military again used mortars. This fact particularly irritates the Kyrgyz side. “The use of mortars, which are not included in the regular set of border troops, demonstrates that the border troops of Tajikistan use the forces and means of the Armed Forces of Tajikistan, which is a flagrant violation of international and bilateral agreements between countries,” the Kyrgyz border guards said.
How the conflict was covered in the media
The confrontation was not only on the battlefield, but also in the media. Both sides actively disseminated materials with their own view of the situation, immediately in English, Russian and Chinese. Comparing the successes of the media confrontation, one can note a significant advantage of the Kyrgyz side – the presence of a relatively free press in the country affects.
Several attempts at negotiations failed. Only at night, the Plenipotentiary of the President of Kyrgyzstan in the Batken region, Abdikarim Alimbaev, and the governor of the Sughd region of Tajikistan, Rajabboy Ahmadzoda, were able to meet and sit down at the negotiating table. It took about two hours for the officials to agree on a ceasefire, the withdrawal of troops drawn to the clashes, and the organization of joint patrols by Kyrgyz and Tajik policemen of the border areas – “in order to prevent conflicts.”
The night in the conflict zone passed without incident.
What is the cause of the border conflict
The border between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan has not yet been delimited. In 30 years of independence, the countries have agreed on the ownership of only 500 kilometers, another 400 remain controversial. The problem is exacerbated by the fact that in the disputed areas there are objects valuable to both countries – villages, strategic roads, water sources, pastures. The territory is densely populated, the concession of a hundred meters can lead to disastrous consequences for either side, directly worsening the lives of tens of thousands of people.
The Ferghana Valley is indented by borders in the most bizarre way, the presence of enclaves complicates logistics. There are 8 of these in the Ferghana Valley, the largest are Sokh and Varukh.
The borders run right along the streets of settlements, Tajik and Kyrgyz houses are in a checkerboard pattern. A particular problem remains the control of water sources. The person who controls the distribution of water in the irrigation canal is very influential; the well-being of hundreds of families depends on him. The water issue has become especially acute in the last two years – another dry period has begun in the region, as a result of which at least 15% of the crop died from drought. Access to water has become a matter of survival.
Giving control over a spring, canal, water intake into the wrong hands is the same as giving your future and the future of your children. Similar situation with arable land and pastures – they are also missing. The lack of clear boundaries gives rise to disputes about the ownership of water intakes, pastures, and roads. Nobody wants to give in, there is no clear evidence, each of the parties is ready to present their archival documents.
If you add to this the ever-growing number of residents, periodic water crises, increasing poverty, the collapse of the social security system in both countries, you get an explosive mixture that can explode at any moment.
Is a peaceful solution to the conflict possible?
Conflicts over access to water between the population of enclaves and neighboring villages have been going on since the 1970s. Under Soviet rule, locals used fists, sticks and stones. With independence, border guards increasingly became involved in the struggle for control of the territory.
The problem of indelimited borders is becoming more acute every year. But it is almost impossible to solve it quickly. It is possible to agree with neighbors only by going to a serious compromise. The problem is that any politician who agrees to cede part of the “ancestral territories” will actually commit political suicide. He will lose the support of the electorate, the opposition will use the fact of concessions to accuse him of betraying the motherland. Moreover, the generation of politicians who grew up in Soviet times on the ideas of friendship between peoples is leaving their posts, they are being replaced by people who are much more pragmatic, ambitious and not inclined to make concessions.
Solving the problem with money by resettling tens of thousands of people from disputed areas is practically impossible in the Kyrgyz realities. Such an option would cost hundreds of millions of dollars, which Kyrgyzstan does not have and will not have in the coming years.
There are forces in the region that oppose the final solution of the border problem. We are talking about groups of Kyrgyz, Tajik and Uzbek smugglers who make money on large-scale transit of goods across the “leaky” border. Local residents, some law enforcement officers, officials and criminals are involved in the supply schemes for fuels and lubricants, fruits, vegetables, livestock, Chinese consumer goods, as well as drugs. In recent years, the struggle of rival factions for control of shadow financial flows has played a prominent role in the increase in the number of clashes in the region.
The leadership of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan found itself in a difficult position. The process of solving the border problem is complex, lengthy, costly and dangerous. After all, it is necessary not only to peacefully agree with neighbors on the fate of disputed areas, but also to at least partially solve the problem of water shortages, poverty, and corruption. An attempt to freeze the conflict will not give a long-term effect, already after six months or a year, or even faster, the thread can be torn off again, while larger clashes can result in full-scale hostilities between countries. In this case, mortars alone will not do – artillery can enter into a conversation between neighbors.
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