Almost every country in the world could experience very high temperatures once every two years from 2030 onwards, indicates a study published on Thursday, which highlights the responsibility of the world’s biggest polluters.
Published in the magazine “Communications Earth and Environment”, the study crosses historical data on emissions with the commitments made by the five largest emitters in the world (China, United States, European Union, India and Russia) before the world climate conference COP26.
The objective is to make predictions of warming by region until the end of the decade. The result shows that 92% of the 165 countries surveyed will have an extremely hot year every two. “Hot” years are when they reach a record high, which used to be reached once every 100 years in the pre-industrial era.
This conclusion “underscores the urgency and shows that we are heading towards a much warmer world for everyone”, pointed out Alexander Nauels, from the NGO Climate Analytics, co-author of the study.
To illustrate the contribution of the main emitters to this phenomenon, the researchers recreated what the situation would be like if their emissions were withdrawn since 1991, the year following the publication of the first report by UN climate experts (IPCC). According to this model, the proportion of countries affected by these years of extreme heat would drop to 46%.
For Lea Beusch, from the ETH University in Zurich, the study shows “the clear footprint” of large emitters in different regions. “I think it’s very important because, in general, we talk about abstract amounts of emissions or world temperatures that we know but cannot feel,” he explained to AFP.
The disturbance is particularly evident in African tropical zones where “year-to-year variations are usually quite weak”, so that “even the moderate increase that the region will experience, compared to others, makes it truly out of its known weather pattern”, indicates Lea.
In absolute values, the strongest increases will occur in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, as is already the case. The consequences could be mitigated with significant reductions in countries’ emissions, but, according to the UN, current commitments will lead to an increase of 13.7% by 2030, far from the -50% considered necessary to reach the ideal objective of the Paris agreement. of 2015.
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