A “neutral” Ukraine, without joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the European Union (EU), is the main goal of Russian President Vladimir Putin, with the invasion of the former Soviet republic. If the objective, however, was to intimidate other neighbors, the plan may have backfired.
Since the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, governments in the region have been seeking EU membership and also expressing greater interest in joining NATO. Last Monday (28), Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky presented a request for the bloc to accept the country “urgently”.
A few days later, it was the turn of Moldova and Georgia, also former Soviet republics, to submit applications to enter the EU.
“We want to live in peace, with democracy and prosperity, being part of the free world”, said the President of Moldova, Maia Sandu, who justified that the request was made at this time because “some decisions must be taken urgently and decisively, to seize the opportunities presented by the changing world landscape” – in a reference to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Since the Russian invasion, there have also been moves to join NATO. Sweden and Finland have started discussions to join the Western military alliance.
“Together, we see that the security situation has changed remarkably since Russia attacked Ukraine. It is a fact that we have to consider”, justified the Finnish Prime Minister, Sanna Marin. In response, Russia warned of “serious political-military consequences” if the two countries join NATO – Finland has the second longest border with Russian territory in Europe, at about 1,300 km, behind Ukraine.
For Natali Hoff, professor of the International Relations course at Uninter, this move is not unexpected, given the increase in tensions in Eastern Europe from 2014, when Russia annexed the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea and started to support separatists in the Donbass region. , in the east of the neighboring country.
“These tensions obviously arouse a certain fear, especially among countries in Russia’s strategic surroundings, because they are much weaker from a military point of view and, in the event of any kind of confrontation, there can be catastrophic effects for local governments. From the moment there is a policy of aggression, with the invasion of Ukrainian territory, one could expect this movement by these states”, justifies Hoff.
According to the charter of NATO, in order for a country to become a member, it must be unanimously accepted by those who are already part of the alliance.
The professor points out that the question that remains is whether the Russian policy of aggression can act as a disincentive for NATO countries to agree to the entry of more Eastern European countries – from the former communist bloc, Albania, Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia are already members.
“I believe that this may be one of the reasons for Putin’s option for aggression, to convey the message that he would be willing to use all possible means to guarantee Russian security, as in the country’s imagination and in its foreign and national policy. security, there is this perception of threat with the advance of NATO”, argues Hoff.
In the same vein, Putin has no interest in more Eastern European countries joining the EU, as he understands these entries as an imbalance of power in the region.
“The EU does not have an article like Article 5 of NATO [que
estipula que uma agressão a um estado-membro é uma agressão a toda a aliança] and does not have its own military, but the entry of a country like Ukraine, for example, would represent a commitment to Western powers and this approach is also seen as a threat to Russian foreign and security policy, especially in its strategic surroundings. ”, explains the teacher.
“As much as the EU does not have the characteristics of NATO, it has a joint defense policy and a foreign policy that needs to be thought of jointly by the member states”, he adds.
This Monday (7), the EU announced that it has started the process for Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia to become members of the bloc.
#countries #join #European #Union #NATO #Russia #backfire