Moldova prepares ground for attempt to fully reintegrate breakaway region of Transnistria

Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine has indirectly created unique conditions that Moldova is seeking to exploit to relaunch the economic and political reintegration of Transnistria, a rebel territory with a pro-Russian majority that declared its independence. de facto in 1990. The beginning of the war in the neighboring country shook the status quo The conflict has been frozen for more than three decades, but as time goes by, the narrow strip along the Dniester River and the border with Ukraine that makes up Transnistria has been able to confirm the inability of the Kremlin forces to reach the territory to supposedly liberate it. This strip, which still guards an arsenal of more than 20,000 tons of Soviet weapons, has not been recognized by anyone as a country, not even by its only guarantor: Russia. At the same time, the firm determination of the current President of Moldova, Maia Sandu, to lead the country towards accession to the EU, including Transnistria, with a population of around half a million inhabitants, has been strengthened.

With this perspective, a new opportunity has been created to move forward in the search for a resolution to the Transnistria conflict, inherited from the Cold War. The Moldovan authorities have proposed to regain full control of security and public order in the territory in 2038, reveals a document to which EL PAÍS has had access and which has been prepared by a consultancy at the request of the pro-European government, which seeks a gradual recovery of the territory following the model of German unification. To advance on this roadmap, the Moldovan authorities meet periodically with those of rebel Transnistria, although at the moment the conversations are in a very initial state and are carried out discreetly.

Not in vain, both sides have accumulated decades of mistrust and tension, the separatist territory went so far as to ask for protection from Russia last February, and the Moldovan government has faced destabilization attempts attributed to pro-Russian groups since the war in Ukraine began.

After several years of gradual reforms aimed at reintegration, the plan provides for a referendum and the withdrawal of foreign troops, which should take place at the request of the Transnistrian authorities. Russia currently has 500 soldiers deployed at checkpoints as supposed peacekeepers and another 1,500 belonging to the Russian Task Force (GOTR), the successor to the Soviet 14th Army. They would be replaced by an international mission to ensure regional stability, a proposal that will need external support, for which Moldova’s eyes are directed to the EU, as a candidate for accession, and NATO, of which it is not a member but maintains a stable collaboration.

According to the text, the reintegration would take its first steps this year, with an attempt to agree with Transnistria on new training for judges, prosecutors and lawyers in the region. The following year, a temporary compensation for the increase in the price of gas would be implemented, since its inhabitants would pay the market cost, instead of the derisory amount they currently pay thanks to the free supply of this hydrocarbon by Moscow, and an agreement on the political status between both parties would be sought, in addition to further exploring other “technical” issues.

In 2026, if the plan goes ahead, it would seek to merge administrative registers and conduct a general census of the region’s population, now estimated at half a million inhabitants. A year later, the project would enter a delicate phase, with the possible organisation of a reintegration referendum, the dismantling of Transnistria’s current security forces, including a Russian exit, and the deployment of an international mission. According to the report, the expenditure of this first phase would exceed 550 million euros, a considerable sum considering that the national GDP is around 15.3 billion euros per year and that of Transnistria, 930 million.

According to the roadmap, the abolition of the Transnistrian ruble and its inclusion in the national currency, the Moldovan leu, would be addressed between 2028 and 2031, as well as fiscal unification. A programme of aid to small and medium-sized businesses would also be implemented, regional institutions would be supported through state funding and the retirement system would be reformed, establishing a minimum pension on both sides of the Dniester. With EU membership on the horizon – Moldova is holding a referendum on 20 October to obtain the approval of the population for future membership – in this phase the Transnistrian armed forces would be disbanded and the stored ammunition would be liquidated. In addition, an attempt would be made to open the region to foreign investment. In those four years, the outlay from the public coffers would rise to over 1.6 billion euros. And in a third phase, over the next seven years, the Moldovan authorities would allow all the measures to take hold until they regain full control of the region. The cost of the plan would increase by another 2 billion euros.

Reducing Russian dependence

The consultancy recommends that Chisinau prepare to provide aid to the region when the Russian gas subsidy is no longer in effect, as it would presumably face a potentially high number of internally displaced persons due to the regional economic crisis that is expected to ensue. It also recommends unifying the price of gas and electricity, and clearly stating that fiscal harmonization will be beneficial for its economy. It also urges monitoring of banks to prevent possible financial crises and, above all, not recognizing any liabilities related to gas consumption – it is estimated that Transnistria owes Gazprom more than 650 million euros for the gas it has received at very low cost since its unilateral independence. Finally, it suggests creating a reserve fund to finance infrastructure such as bridges or electricity networks. Moldova will also have to undertake the elimination of parallel institutions because, otherwise, budgetary costs will increase in the long term.

“At the moment, Chisinau’s tactics are focused on gradual and sectoral reintegration. A number of laws, especially of an economic and social nature, are being reviewed to adapt them to the new situation, in the conditions of the war in Ukraine. It must be admitted that many of them, once modified, imply the need for further modifications, which in certain sectors can create an avalanche effect. However, that does not stop us. A number of measures have already been taken, while others will follow,” the Moldovan Government’s Reintegration Policy Office explains to EL PAÍS, while admitting that Tiraspol, the capital of Transnistria, “is not satisfied.” “But our task is to restore constitutional order and reintegrate the country peacefully, of course,” they add. In late February, the separatist authorities asked Russia for protection over the introduction of new Moldovan customs regulations, which have meant that international trade from Transnistria, whose industry also exports to the EU, has lost tax privileges it had obtained from Chisinau as part of a policy of allurement to reintegrate the separatist region.

As for the economic cost, the Office notes that “it is difficult to estimate a real and exact figure at the moment” and that experts are working on it. “There will certainly be costs, as this is an objective reality in itself,” it asserts. Meanwhile, there is already a rapprochement between the two parties. State Secretary of the Ministry of Energy Constantin Borosan recently announced that the company Tiraspoltransgaz, which distributes natural gas to consumers in the Transnistria region, has registered with the Moldovan Public Services Agency and opened accounts in banks in Chisinau for transactions.

In mid-April, Deputy Prime Minister for Reintegration Oleg Serebrian revealed that the model to follow is the reunification of Germany. “The German brand was introduced on the territory of the German Democratic Republic, a common customs area was created and the mechanisms of economic integration were put in place. This actually preceded the mechanism of political reintegration and in our case we have the same idea,” he said. At the moment, the path to reintegration is in the early stages, but one thing is certain: Moldova depends on the financial support of its Western partners to cope with this colossal effort.

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