POLITICAL ELECTORAL POLLS TODAY 2 SEPTEMBER 2021
POLITICAL ELECTORAL POLLS TODAY – There seems to have been no match in the challenge of the next elections in Milan. According to the BiDiMedia survey, carried out between 25 and 27 August, the challenge for the leadership of the Lombard capital is reserved for center-left and center-right candidates, respectively Beppe Sala and Luca Bernardo.
But the advantage of the outgoing mayor would be quite substantial, so much so that he could get the victory already in the first round. In detail, according to the replies of the sample, Beppe Sala reaches 47.1 percent against 39.8 by Luca Bernardo. In 2016 Sala won with 41 percent, 1 point above the challenger Stefano Parisi.
In the Milanese city, the Democratic Party would confirm itself as the first party, with 24 percent, with a decrease of 5 points from 2016 when only 4 lists were presented in the center-left compared to 8 in 2021. In the center-right, the League continues to dominate and confirms itself second party of the Milanese city with 16 per cent, however, pursued by the Brothers of Italy in strong rise to 14 per cent. Forza Italia stops at 6.7 percent. According to the poll, there would be no room for the other candidates for the seat in Palazzo Marino. Just 5.1 per cent for Layla Pavone of the 5 Star Movement, 3.1 per cent for Mariani della Sinistra, 2.1 per cent for Gianluigi Paragone. All the other candidates do not get to the percentage point.
HOW THE POLLS ARE DONE
The electoral and political polls are carried out by opinion polling societies respecting very specific scientific criteria. The authors of the surveys must identify a sample to be interviewed that is sufficiently large and representative of the population to be analyzed. In the case of polls on voting intentions for parties or the confidence index of political leaders, therefore, the interviewees must adequately represent the Italian population of age, those who have the right to vote and who go to the polls.
This work is done to minimize the margin of error and make the detection as reliable as possible. Usually a political-electoral poll is considered reliable if the indicated margin of error is 3 percent with a 95 percent confidence interval. It is precisely that of identifying a representative sample of the population that is the greatest difficulty for pollsters. Interviews for political electoral polls are usually conducted with a Cati methodology, by telephone, or Cawi, via the Internet, or mixed. To carry out the interviews, opinion polling companies rely on specialized companies.
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