“Until last week, Israel and Hezbollah had been walking a fine line between a full-scale war and a calculated pattern of attacks and responses.” With these words, Hanin Ghaddar, a researcher at the Washington Institute, describes what had been happening between both actors for almost a year, when the Lebanese Shiite group opened a battle front with Israel on the northern border in support of the Palestinian Islamist movement Hamas.
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But this Monday (Tuesday early in the morning in Lebanon time) that thin line of attacks between both actors finally broke, when Israel launched what it called a “limited, localized and targeted” ground incursion on Lebanon’s southern border with the purpose of attacking Hezbollah objectives and infrastructure.
The details or scope of the ground operation are still unknown. The brief statement from the Israeli Army assures that The incursion is carried out in villages near the northern border that “represent an immediate threat to the communities in northern Israel.”
It is also known that the operation is supported by the Israeli air force and artillery and that there is “a methodical plan for which the soldiers have trained and prepared during the last months,” according to the statement.
But the operation took no one by surprise. In addition to the statements by Israeli officials who repeatedly stated in recent days that the ground incursion was on the table – or the information that circulated in the American press this Monday that Washington took for granted that the operation on the ground ” was imminent” –, The entry of Israeli troops into Lebanon was preceded by a series of blows to Hezbollah that made it clear that the focus of the war was no longer the Gaza Strip but the enemy in Lebanese territory.
The first blow was an intelligence operation, not recognized by Israel, which led to the explosion of thousands of pagers and walkie-talkies used by members of Hezbollah. Explosions that left almost 40 dead and more than 3,000 injured throughout Lebanon and left the Shiite group’s communications severely affected.
What came next, on September 23, was the beginning of an intense bombing campaign by Israel against the south and east of Lebanon, and against the suburbs of Beirut, in an operation that has already left more than 1,000 dead and up to one million displaced, according to estimates by Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati.
The final blow against the pro-Iranian movement occurred last Friday, when The Army of the Hebrew country ended the life of Hassan Nasrallah, top leader of Hezbollah since 1992, a loss with which Israel completely decimated the leadership of the militia.
“Hezbollah has launched around 8,800 missiles and drones against the north of Israeli territory. It has caused deaths, there are nearly 100,000 Israeli citizens who ordinarily live in this area of the north of the country who have had to be displaced. In the midst of this constant rain and rocket bombardment from Lebanon, the conditions were in place to turn the attention and operational capabilities of the Israeli security forces towards that threat,” explains Janiel Melamed, doctor in International Security and professor in the Department of Political Science and Foreign Affairs. International Studies from the Universidad del Norte (Barranquilla), on the reasons why Israel is now concentrating on Lebanon.
With the land incursion, according to Melamed, Israel seems to be betting on attacking areas where it is not certain it has been able to neutralize the missiles, weapons and explosives. that Hezbollah fires against northern Israel.
Thomas S. Warrick, an analyst at the Atlantic Council, agrees with this, mentioning that the objective of the operation is “neutralize Hezbollah’s ability to launch rockets and short-range missiles into northern Israel so that tens of thousands of Israelis can return to their homes.
“This campaign will aim to destroy Hezbollah’s military installations and weapons depots south of the Litani River. Israel hopes for a ceasefire after which Hezbollah does not return its forces near the border and rocket and missile attacks cease. “Israel could then withdraw its ground forces,” he explains.
How might Hezbollah respond to the ground incursion?
Now, the decision of the trajectory of the conflict in the Middle East seems to be in the camp of Hezbollah, that must determine how it will respond to Israel’s recent blows against its leadership and how it acts in the face of the troops’ incursion into Lebanese territory.
An analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) considers that Hezbollah could carry out guerrilla attacks, probably using its “extensive network of tunnels and well-prepared defensive positions near the Israeli border.”
It could also respond with cross-border attacks, although what seems more certain is that it will resort to its arsenal of missiles and rockets. – estimated to have between 120,000 and 200,000 – seeking to overwhelm Israel’s defense system. In the most extreme scenario, CSIS believes that “Hezbollah could carry out international terrorist attacks against Israeli targets around the world.”
And William F. Wechsler, of the Atlantic Council’s Middle East program, assures that Even if Hezbollah has suffered significant blows in recent weeks to its chain of command, its communications or its arsenal, it remains a powerful armed force. which represents a challenge for the Hebrew country.
“Despite Israeli military successes, it is safe to assume that Hezbollah still possesses over a hundred thousand rockets and surface-to-surface missiles, along with an arsenal of drones. If used together, they are enough to overwhelm Israel’s Iron Dome and endanger Israeli population centers,” he explains.
Bilal Y. Saab of Chatam House’s Middle East and North Africa Program also notes that “It is precisely in the land field where Hezbollah could have the advantage.”
“Hezbollah knows the terrain better and is trained to fight quite effectively. The mountains and valleys of southern Lebanon are not the neighborhoods of Gaza. It is true that the Israeli army learned lessons from the 2006 fighting, but so did Hezbollah “he points out.
Hezbollah knows the terrain best and is trained to fight quite effectively. The mountains and valleys of southern Lebanon are not the neighborhoods of Gaza
Joost Hiltermann, director of the Middle East program of the International Crisis Group, agrees with this, listing notable differences between what it has been like to confront Hamas in Gaza and what it would be like to confront Hezbollah in Lebanon.
“Hezbollah has a much larger military arsenal. It has the support of Iran and is in a territory that is very mountainous, where it is easier to hide weapons. Hamas in Gaza has to rely only on tunnels. However, we have seen that Israel has not been able to defeat Hamas in Gaza after a year of fighting. So how much more difficult can it be to defeat Hezbollah in Lebanon?
David Schenker, a researcher at the Washington Institute, also recalls that “Israel has had several experiences with ground operations in Lebanon and none have had good results” and that Hezbollah could take advantage of the incursion to try to change the dynamic or level a playing field that until now now it seems dominated by Israel.
The course of the conflict, experts point out, will also depend largely on Iran and the decision it must make about whether or not to enter the direct battle between Israel and Hezbollah. Melamed, however, believes that Iran has no intention of entering the fighting, considering that its very survival is at stake.
“I doubt that the Iranian theocratic diligence is going to give everything for everything and open a major open war in order to defend Hezbollah, putting the stability of the regime at risk. Today they are not going through the best of times: they have a senior ayatollah, have been infiltrated in an unprecedented way, have shown themselves incapable of providing security within the Islamic Republic of Iran itself,” he points out.
What seems to be clear to analysts is that the third Lebanon war between Israel and Hezbollah has already begun and that its future is uncertain, as the forces in the Middle East seem to change configuration with each passing hour.
ANGIE NATALY RUIZ HURTADO – INTERNATIONAL EDITORIAL – EL TIEMPO
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