Merlin and Colonial quote on a stock market with an average discount of 38%, even despite the fall of their assets

This Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) will lower interest rates 25 basic points by placing them by 2.5%, the lowest level since the late 2022. In the middle of the traches, the situation becomes increasingly favorable for companies such as Colonial and Merlin. However, the macroeconomic context still does not end up accompanying its business and Both companies have reduced the net value of their assets at the end of 2024. Even with this, these socimis continue to acquire in the stock market with An average 38%discount.

The scissors It has passed with greater on the NAV (net value of the assets) of Merlin and the company has reduced it up to 5% with respect to the value at the end of 2023. Specifically, the Merlin ship is currently located in 14.32 euros per sharecompared to 15.08 euros in the previous year. This data also means that the firm itself sees the value of its assets in minimum of 2017 (NAV of 13.25 euros).

From the Banco Sabadell analysis team they explain this fall “due to Capital extensionwith a appraised value of the stable portfolio in comparable terms. The value created in Data centers (60.3 million euros) compensates for the devaluation of the rest of the portfolio “.

To all this, from Bloomberg Intelligence They add that “the lowest 2024 figures are due to the maintenance costs of the new data centers, which are not immediately compensated with the new rentals [explican, además, que la cartera principal de Merlin está alquilada casi en su totalidad, dejando poco margen para la subida de los alquileres]as well as for the highest debt costs of 600 million euros of refinancing. “

Currently, Merlin’s shares record losses of almost 3% in the year and yield the level of 10 euros, causing the Catalan Cotice company with a 31% discount with respect to the net value of its assets.

For experts these corrections are not, however, more than a more profitable entry opportunity in the value and 90% of them advise to get the titles of the socimi. The company is also the second best purchase recommendation in the entire Ibex after Puig, as reflected in The Ibex League (The combined of electionomista.es that is made with the means of the recommendations of Bloomberg and FACTSET).

However, analysts believe that these falls are only temporary and come, on average, to their shares reaching 13.44 euros over the next months, to those that Merlin currently has a 33%bullish potential. This objective price also supposes value the firm’s titles in historical maximumsabove the current ones at 13.41 euros.

Less pronounced has been the cut that has carried out colonial. The company has gone from assessing its assets in 10 euros per share at the end of the year of 2023 to place the NAV in the 9.62 euros in 2024, which implies a reduction of less than 4%. However, and like Merlin, this data means estimating the value of its assets at minimum levels of 2017. From Banco Sabadell they also explain this fall due to “the expansion of capital last July and the dividend.”

Unlike Merlin, colonial manages to register profits in the stock market and its actions are revalued around 2%. “We believe that results 2024, the change in appraisal trend and the delivery of development portfolio projects should generate a good evolution of the results in the coming years. If interest rates do not significantly rise the action should have a good behavior in 2025,” they argue from Sabadell. Even with the rise of their actions, Its Christmas discount remains greater than Merlin presents, touching 45%.

Analysts expect this good behavior of the company in the Spanish market to continue during the next months and estimate for their actions a carist potential of 24% and an objective price of 6.83 euros.