07/10/2024 – 10:14
The median of financial market expectations for the Broad National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) of 2024 fluctuated from 4.37% to 4.38%, still close to the target ceiling of 4.50%. A month earlier, it was at 4.30%. The data was published in the Central Bank’s Focus report.
In the last five business days, 43 institutions revised the 2024 IPCA estimates and, on this basis, the median went from 4.36% to 4.40%. The median for the 2025 IPCA remained at 3.97%, from 3.92% a month earlier. Considering only the 43 projections updated in the last five business days, it went from 3.86% to 3.92%.
The medians for the longer horizons also remained detached from the center of the target. For 2026, it remained at 3.60%, the same level as a month before. For 2027, it remained at 3.50% for the 66th consecutive week.
Changes in estimates for the coming years
The dollar projection for 2025 went from R$5.35 to R$5.39. The annual exchange rate projection published in Focus is calculated based on the average for the rate in December, and no longer on the value projected for the last business day of each year, as it was until 2020.
The median of the Focus report for the 2025 GDP increase, in turn, went from 1.92% to 1.93%. Four weeks earlier, it was at 1.90%. Market economists did not change their economic growth projections in 2026 and 2027. Both remained at 2.0%, as they have been for 61 and 63 weeks, respectively.
As for Selic, the intermediate estimate for the end of 2025 went from 11.00% to 10.75%, taking into account only the 39 estimates updated in the period. The median for interest rates at the end of 2026 remained at 9.50%, as it has been for six weeks. The projection for the end of 2027 remained at 9.0%, as it has been for 20 weeks.
Market maintained forecasts for GDP, inflation and Selic
The Focus Bulletin published by the Central Bank this Monday, 7th, brought the same forecasts as last week for Brazilian GDP, inflation and the country’s basic interest rate.
The median forecast in the Central Bank’s Focus report for the Selic rate at the end of 2024 remained at 11.75%, consolidating the financial market’s expectations for the current cycle of tightening interest rates, with two increases of 0.50 percentage points in two next collegiate meetings, in November and December.
As for the dollar, the expectation for the end of 2024 remained at R$5.40.
The market also maintained its estimate of growth in the Brazilian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2024 at 3.0%, according to the report’s median.
A month ago, the expectation was for an increase of 2.68% for GDP, 11.25% for Selic and R$5.35 for the dollar at the end of 2024.
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