Analysts have lowered the median of forecasts for the price index for the 13th consecutive week.
For the 13th consecutive week, the financial market increased the estimate for official inflation in Brazil in 2022. The median of the projections went from 6% to 5.88%. O BC (Central Bank) released the Focus Bulletin this Monday (26.Sep.2022). Here’s the intact of the report (612 KB).
The report is published on Mondays and summarizes the statistical projections of analysts consulted by the BC since 2000. It is possible to know the institutions that hit the most here.
Despite the consecutive drops, the percentage should close 2022 outside the inflation target established by the CMN (National Monetary Council), from 3% to 5%.
For 2023, analysts also reduced the percentage expected for the IPCA (Broad Consumer Price Index). It was the 6th week of decline in projections. Expect a 5% fee.
Analysts also raised for the 13th week in a row the median of projections for GDP (Gross Domestic Product). They started to bet on growth of 2.67% in 2022, compared to the previous estimate of 2.65%. For 2023, the market maintained its high expectation of 0.50%.
The Brazilian economy grew 2.5% in the 1st half of 2022.
The market did not change the projections for the basic rate, the Selic, and for the dollar in the years 2022 and 2023. It maintained the median interest rates at 13.75% (2022) and 11.25% (2023). The commercial dollar should be R$ 5.20 this and next year, according to projections.
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