05/10/2024 – 21:37
The false report released by candidate Pablo Marçal (PRTB) against federal deputy Guilherme Boulos (PSOL) this Friday, 4th, has the potential to generate negative effects on the former coach’s electoral performance, especially in a scenario of technical draw pointed out by the main research institutes. Experts consulted by Estadão/Broadcast evaluate that, if on the one hand the strategy created a new fact on the eve of the election, capturing the attention of the São Paulo electorate and overshadowing Ricardo Nunes (MDB) in this final stretch of the race for São Paulo City Hall, on the other hand, the strategy increases the risk of alienating undecided and moderate voters, which could eliminate Marçal from the second round.
This Friday, the 4th, Marçal published a false report on social media that points to the alleged use of cocaine by Boulos. The document states that, on January 19, 2021, Boulos was admitted to a clinic with a severe psychotic episode. According to the prescription, a toxicological test presented by one of Boulos’ companions would indicate a positive result for cocaine use. The Civil Police Criminalistics Institute concluded, this Saturday, the 5th, that the report is false.
In the opinion of political scientist Antonio Lavareda, the dissemination of the false document was planned with two objectives: to stop Boulos’ growth on the eve of the election, driven by the presence of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) in a campaign agenda alongside the PSOL candidate on Avenida Paulista, this Saturday, and overshadow the statement made by former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL) in a live broadcast on Friday night, in which he reinforced his support for the current mayor. Both candidates compete for the same segment of conservative and Bolsonarian voters.
For Lavareda, the rapid reaction of the Electoral Court, with the decision to remove the post that published the false report and, subsequently, the suspension of Marçal’s Instagram account this Saturday, helps to mitigate the negative impacts on Boulos’ candidacy and could generate an effect Backfire in the former coach’s campaign – when a strategy ends up having the opposite result to what was expected, harming those who used it.
Likewise, the political scientist and director of the Institute of Social, Political and Economic Research (Ipespe) Analítico, Vinicius Alves, assesses that, although Marçal’s tactic fulfills its objective by isolating Nunes and diverting the debate from issues that harm him, Like useful voting, the movement can alienate voters who interpret the strategy as an act of desperation.
“Until now it was thought that the discussion would be focused on useful votes and rejection in this final stretch of reaching the first round, which would leave Marçal at a disadvantage in relation to Nunes, who is less rejected”, he assesses.
The disclosure of the false prescription also puts at risk Marçal’s attempt to adopt a more moderate tone in the campaign, as well as the recovery of his electoral performance in the latest polls of voting intentions, as explained by Yuri Sanches, policy director at the AtlasIntel Institute.
“It seems to me that it is a very risky strategy, because in the Globo debate he behaved in a very moderate way, in addition to being recovering in the polls. This could have a negative impact on him, with people really looking at him and not seeing him as a viable alternative, as someone who is more willing to cause than actually concerned with managing the city of São Paulo. Maybe even take him out of the second round”, he highlights.
Communication strategist Marc Tawil, in turn, states that the episode puts Marçal’s credibility into question with three essential audiences for his going to the second round: undecided voters, faithful Bolsonarists and evangelicals. In his assessment, the episode still has the potential to remove relevant names from the Brazilian political scene.
“Although it may benefit from immediate attention thanks to the repercussion of the case in the media and social networks, the negative impact of a possible crime should take away important political support from it”, he adds.
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