We started a new week, short, for yesterday’s holiday in the US; however, there is relevant information that will be given throughout it.
The prevailing mood is optimism, the week before we closed on a positive note in the labor issue, since the jobs created in June exceeded the expectation of 750,000 new jobs to 850,000, which was the official figure. The labor issue is essential to give strength and credibility to the US economy, which has seen a lot of money printing through buy-back programs and unemployment incentives, as well as covid aid. The recovery of the labor market is fundamental and although progress is being made on this issue, the debt for the 11 million jobs that were lost in the pandemic continues to be 6 million vacancies.
During the week, several indicators of consumption, industrial activity and in the real estate market, the prices of houses, which by the way in many states already exceed historical maximums, as well as the construction of new houses that are confirmed at very high levels. This week we will know the pace of the economy in the service sector and everything indicates that the data will be favorable.
President Biden It did not reach its goal of vaccinating 70% of the population and fell short by 4%. It was not for lack of vaccines, it is imminent that many no longer want to be vaccinated.
All these indicators favor Mexico and in addition to continuing to receive an impressive amount of remittances, the economic rebound from our neighbor also means an improvement in exports. The data confirm this and therefore the rebound this year may exceed 6% of GDP growth. After the elections, what did decrease was the vaccination campaign. Given Mexican politics, it is no longer so important to vaccinate the population.
The Fed’s minutes are published on Wednesday and Banxico’s on Thursday. Both are documents that will allow us to clearly see the course of monetary policy. There we will look for clues to see if the hikes begin in 2023 or are going to be anticipated. In Mexico we will see the detailed reasons for the decision to raise the rate to 4.25% and we will look for indications of how far the reference rate can take in the remainder of the year. There are analysts who think that we will close the year with a rate higher than 5%. On the same Thursday the inflation for the second half of June is published, we will see if it begins to give way and we can lower the annual figure of 6% or if it continues to pressure.
This week will continue the debate in OPEC to lower oil prices, which today are at $ 75 per barrel, through the joint rise in production. The task is to convince the United Arab Emirates, which has already had two failed attempts.
The idea of global auditing also continues to progress and seems to reach 90% support of world GDP, represented by 130 countries. The objective is to control large companies that establish their tax domicile outside the country of origin to lower or not pay taxes. There is talk of a rate of 15% and that it can take effect in 2023.
Juan S.Musi Amione