At the end of January, the news of the arrest of the mayor Keyrineth Fernández, an authority of the Jesús María Semprúm municipality, in the state of Zulia, along with a deputy of the National Assembly, began to circulate on the networks.
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Within days, the arrest of another mayor, prosecutors and even soldiers was known. They had something in common: they are affiliated with Chavismo and were accused of drug trafficking and fuel smuggling. In addition, a term was coined during these captures: “Operation Iron Hand”.
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“We must be absolutely intolerant with the corrupt, with the bureaucrats, with the criminals, whoever they are,” Diosdado Cabello, number two of Chavismo, wrote on Twitter.
This sudden performance seems to point in two directions. The first, demonstrate before the International Criminal Court (ICC) that there is justice in the country and the second, “wash” the image of the regime before the presidential elections of 2024a fairly big challenge due to unpopularity, as explained by political consultant Jesús Seguías, president of the polling firm DatinCorp.
If Nicolás Maduro aspires to re-election, “he is interested in recovering his image,” says Seguías, also clarifying that it is uphill when this political current has reached “a floor and a ceiling” in the polls. Although the numbers have varied, the trend has remained in recent years and is a minimum of 17 percent acceptance and a maximum of 25 percent.
“So they are obliged to do better government management, it is not only the Iron Hand operation, but also in the country’s economy,” consultant Seguías told EL TIEMPO.
The regime does not lose or lose because it is not just about the president, the regime foresees any scenario managing the institutions as it pleases
Maduro has said in recent speeches that with his “iron fist” he is going to fight corruption. But this cleanliness of image seems to extend to other aspects, such as security. A few days ago, it became known about the death of one of the most wanted criminals in the country, Carlos Revette, alias “El Koki”. The “Guaicaipuro II” operation was the name given to the procedure that, according to the Minister of the Interior, Remigio Ceballos, ended with 13 criminals arrested and five dead.
For the political scientist Leandro Rodríguez Linárez, these facts, although true, are not with real intention, since “it is about faking an action against drug trafficking” or gasoline smuggling when in truth “the Constitution continues to be violated, such as the right to property private”.
But beyond that, the analyst believes that even if the governability of the Maduro administration improves, there are no guarantees that allow one to believe that the institutions will change by that date. “The regime does not lose or lose because it is not just about the president, the regime foresees any scenario, managing the institutions as it pleases.”
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Regardless of whether or not it achieves its objectives, Chavismo points to its well-being strategy. Meanwhile, how is the opposition doing? Rodríguez details that those who oppose power are practically nullified, so it is urgent to see results because if not, “the scenario is the removal of that opposition that today is more of an international imposition.”
Juan Guaidó recently said that a change of government cannot be expected until 2024. He has also reiterated his call for dialogue in Mexico and a new group of friendly countries is even beginning to establish itself, trying to push the negotiations forward, but nothing is progressing.
If everything remains the same – says Rodríguez – with the same protagonists and approaches, it will be difficult to reach transparent elections. Added to that, “Venezuelans are dedicated to their reality” and not to politics.
For the political scientist Nicmer Evans, one of the promoters of the recall against Nicolás Maduro, thinking about 2024 is also doing it in primaries to choose the best candidate from the opposition. Although at this time he does not envision a Maduro-Guaidó contest, he believes that it is best to consult and go to these elections in unity.
But for the coordinator of the Movement of Venezuelans for the Recall (Mover), it is valid to think of that 2024 but not without exhausting constitutional mechanisms such as the recall or even the amendment to the Magna Carta, which would allow indefinite reelection to be eliminated.
Already in the opposition sectors there is talk of pre-candidates like Carlos Prosperi of the Democratic Action party. The consultant Seguías points to the need for that opposition unity that would weaken the candidate of the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV).
Another aspect that the ruling party must take care of is the fracture that Operation Iron Hand can generate. Why start that operation now and not before? Because doing it in 2021 was during the electoral period “and applying an iron fist would have been problematic,” insists Seguías, clarifying that with this set of actions and if they manage to overcome the possible opposition unity, Chavismo will be more robust to fight at all levels. .
Until now, the only thing certain is that during these two years there will be no elections in Venezuela, a rather rare scenario in a country accustomed to going to the polls, regardless of the conditions.
ANA RODRIGUEZ BRAZON
TIME CORRESPONDENT
CARACAS
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