The fall of Michel Barnier and his government marks the last chapter of a political sequence that began on June 9. The elections to the European Parliament certified a clear victory for the extreme right in France and a significant setback for Emmanuel Macron’s bloc. To general surprise, the president announced that same night the dissolution of the Assembly and the calling of early legislative elections, by virtue of a “necessary clarification.”
“There is nothing more in line with the values of the French Republic than giving the floor to the sovereign people,” he stated then. “It is better than any political settlement, than all the precarious solutions.”
In the first round of those elections, the extreme right confirmed the results obtained in the European elections and once again finished in the lead. But the activation of an electoral pact between the center parties and the New Popular Front (NFP), in addition to the important mobilization, managed to prevent a far-right majority in the National Assembly.
However, the result of this “clarification” sought by the president was a parliamentary fragmentation unprecedented in the current French system, with the Assembly divided into three large blocs incapable of reaching agreements (193 deputies from the NFP, 166 from Macron’s bloc and 142 of the extreme right).
After the elections, Macron ignored calls from the NFP to appoint the common candidate of the progressive alliance, Lucie Castets, as prime minister, and ended up choosing the conservative Michel Barnier, even though his party had not participated in the republican front against the extreme right. .
Macron then justified his decision by explaining that, with the support of the centrist bloc and the 47 seats of the right, Barnier would have a base of more than 200 deputies in the Assembly, superior in number to the NFP (in addition to the majority of the Senate).
But the truth is that without other political forces supporting the Government, that majority was far from the 289 seats necessary to carry out the budget texts or resist a motion of censure. Barnier’s survival was, therefore, dependent on the other blocks not voting together against him, as finally happened this Wednesday.
Possible scenarios
As a result of the motion of no confidence, Barnier must present his resignation and that of his government to Emmanuel Macron, who will have to appoint a new prime minister. The French Constitution does not set limits or deadlines for the president to choose a head of government. Given the current parliamentary situation, finding a candidate who will not be rejected by two of the three large blocs is a particularly difficult task.
From the outset, Barnier’s failure highlights the limits of a coalition between the center and the right and the risks of entrusting stability to the abstention of Marine Le Pen. Among the names circulating these days in the press there are several profiles similar to Barnier, right-wing politicians (such as the former Minister of Economy Bruno Le Maire) but there is no reason to think that their fate would be different from that of Michel Barnier.
Another option would be the appointment of a progressive politician capable of governing with the votes of the NFP and, at least, a part of the centrist deputies. But the mutual rejection of the centrists and France Insoumise to any parliamentary alliance, in addition to Emmanuel Macron’s refusal to name a government that could put at risk the pension reform he approved last year, represent two obstacles that are difficult to overcome.
France Insoumise (LFI), a party with the most deputies (71) in the NFP, maintains from the beginning a clear line of conduct, in substance and form: they will only accept a prime minister from the NFP who is committed to the application of your breakout program. In parallel, Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s party wants to increase pressure on Emmanuel Macron and is multiplying calls for the president’s resignation.
“We find ourselves in a situation of political blockade, the resignation of Emmanuel Macron would resolve this situation. This idea is gaining ground,” LFI coordinator Manuel Bompard said this Wednesday.
The Socialist Party, the other great force of the NFP (66 deputies), does not share the positions of LFI and is not in favor of calling for the resignation of the president. “We have already experienced the madness of the dissolution of the Assembly, are we going to repeat that feat opening a presidential campaign, which the Constitution sets at a maximum of thirty-five days, at a time when the threat from the extreme right is still at its peak?” Olivier Faure, secretary general, asked on Wednesday morning. of the Socialist Party in a television interview.
“Furthermore, an early presidential election would not change the balance of power in the Assembly, which cannot be dissolved again before July,” Faure added. Another of the socialist leaders, Boris Vallaud, evoked a few days ago a possible minimum agreement agreed with Emmanuel Macron’s party, a proposal highly criticized by LFI members.
“LFI pretends not to understand that this is not a common programmatic platform with the right, but rather our refusal to use 49.3 in exchange for an agreement so that they do not vote on a motion of censure,” Faure explained in the same interview on Wednesday.
The Macronists, for their part, have shown themselves in favor of negotiating with the socialists on condition that they break with LFI. This Wednesday, former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal defended “a non-censorship agreement with the Socialists, in addition to the Republicans.”
Technical government
In the event of a prolonged blockade, another possible solution would be the appointment of a technical government, with a non-political prime minister. In the summer, Emmanuel Macron already approached several civil society figures, such as the trade unionist Laurent Berger and the civil servant Thierry Beaudet.
The principle of this type of Government is that urgent matters are managed and certain reforms can be applied by consensus with the support of the different political blocks of the Assembly. It would be a temporary configuration that has precedents in Italy.
In this context, the political crisis threatens to become a regime crisis. A recent survey by Ipsos and the Jean-Jaurès Foundation pointed out erosion of trust in the institutions (particularly the National Assembly and the presidency of the Republic). In addition to a total incomprehension of the French about Macron’s decision to dissolve the Assembly.
“There is an explosion of distrust in the political system,” warned this week the managing director of Ipsos Brice Teinturier. “In the president of the Republic, but also in the political representatives, in all the bodies of the National Assembly. “It is a gigantic explosion of distrust.”
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