If the first round of the elections were held this Sunday, Macron would obtain 33.5% of the votes
Outgoing President Emmanuel Macron soars in voting intention polls, days after making his candidacy official in April’s presidential elections, while far-right leader Marine Le Pen and left-wing populist candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon battle it out. the pass to the second round.
If the first round of the elections were held this Sunday, Macron would obtain 33.5% of the votes, 8.5 points more than a week ago, according to the latest poll by the Elabe institute for the BFMTV television network.
Macron, who these days spends much of his time mediating to achieve a ceasefire in Ukraine and little on the election campaign, would benefit, according to experts, from the so-called “flag effect”. In times of national or international crisis, the people close ranks around their leader.
In the last week, Macron’s image has also improved. 69% of French people consider him to be dynamic, 61% courageous and 55% competent, although, among his negative qualities, 66% of his compatriots find him arrogant.
Le Pen, candidate of the National Regrouping (former National Front), would obtain 15% of the votes in the first round, followed closely by Mélenchon, candidate of La Francia Insumisa (the French Podemos), with 13% voting intention. One of these two candidates would go to the second round and dispute the keys to the Elysee with Macron, according to this poll.
Mélenchon is the only left-wing candidate who exceeds the 10% vote intention threshold. The ecologist Yannick Yadot would obtain 5% of the votes, the communist Fabien Roussel 3.5% and the socialist Anne Hidalgo, mayor of Paris, 1.5%.
The leader of La France Insumisa is seen by many French voters, including former socialist candidate Ségolène Royal, as “the useful vote”, in the face of the debacle of the left, too divided with a large number of candidates and unable to unite to make opposite to the right and to the extreme right.
But not everyone shares this analysis. “There comes a time when you have to have a useful president, not just a useful vote,” former socialist president François Hollande said today on France Inter radio, critical of Mélenchon’s electoral program.
The far-right Éric Zemmour (11%) and the moderate conservative Valérie Pécresse (10.5%), who a few weeks ago seemed to have a good chance of qualifying for the second round, are in fourth and fifth position in voting intention, according to the same poll.
Zemmour, criticized for having held pro-Putin positions in the past and being opposed to hosting Ukrainian refugees in France, lost three points compared to last week. His recent signing of Marion Maréchal, Le Pen’s niece, for his campaign has not helped him rise in the polls.
Pécresse, candidate of the Republicans, sinks in the polls. Her opponents consider that, ideologically, there is not much difference between the candidate of the moderate right and Macron. Pécresse is struggling to make a difference and attract voters.
If there are no last surprises now, it seems that the Macron-Le Pen duel will be repeated. Both candidates already faced each other at the polls in 2017. The candidate of La República en Marcha defeated Le Pen by 66.1% of the vote, compared to 33.9% obtained by the far-right. Le Pen seeks revenge, if Mélenchon allows it.
Macron starts as the favorite in the second round. He would defeat by a wide margin at the polls Le Pen, Mélenchon or Zemmour, whoever his opponent is, according to the Elabe poll. The first round of the presidential elections will take place on April 10 and the second on April 24.
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