By Eduardo Simões
SAO PAULO (Reuters) – Former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva continues to lead the dispute for the Planalto Palace next year, according to a Genial/Quaest poll released this Wednesday, which also showed a drop in the government’s negative assessment President Jair Bolsonaro (PL), deputy leader in electorate preference.
According to the survey, Lula leads voting intentions, in all scenarios, with more than 20 points of advantage over Bolsonaro, while former judge and former justice minister Sergio Moro (Podemos) is the only one another presidential candidate reaching the double-digit mark.
In the scenario in which Lula, Bolsonaro, Moro and Ciro Gomes (PDT) appear, the PT leader leads with 47%; followed by the current president with 24%; by the former judge, which adds up to 11%; and by Ciro, who appears with 7%.
In a simulation in which the governor of São Paulo, João Doria (PSDB), the president of the Senate, Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD) and Luiz Felipe D’Ávila (Novo), Lula maintains the lead with 46%, Bolsonaro adds 23%, Moro has 10%; Cyrus, 5%; Doria, 2%; Pacheco and D’Ávila keep 1% each.
When Moro, Doria and D’Ávila are removed from the dispute, Lula appears with 48%, Bolsonaro goes to 27%, Ciro adds 8% and Pacheco reaches 2%. In a fourth scenario –without Moro, Pacheco and D’Ávila–, Lula has 47%, Bolsonaro 27%, Ciro reaches 7% and Doria goes to 5%.
The poll also pointed to Lula’s loose leadership against all opponents in an eventual runoff: 55% to 31% against Bolsonaro, 53% to 29% in a dispute with Moro, 54% to 21% if the opponent was Ciro, 57% to 14% in an eventual duel with Doria and 58% to 13% if the rival was Pacheco.
Bolsonaro, in turn, would be numerically behind Moro –31% to 34%– and would lose to Ciro –34% to 39%.
GOVERNMENT ASSESSMENT
Despite negative news for the president on the electoral scene, the poll brought some relief to Bolsonaro in his government’s assessment.
The negative rating has dropped from 56% in the previous survey in November to 50% now. The percentage of those who see the government positively ranged from 19% to 21%, and those who see the government as regular add up to 26%, from 22%.
The survey by the Quaest institute for Genial Investimentos polled 2,037 people between the 2nd and 5th of December. The survey’s margin of error is 2.2 percentage points.
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