Search PowerDate carried out from June 19 to 21, 2022 shows that Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (EN) extended the advantage over Jair Bolsonaro (PL) in an eventual 2nd round dispute. The PT has 52% of the voting intentions, against 35% of the current president. The gap is 17 percentage points.
This is the 1st time in 4 months that the difference between Lula and the Chief Executive has grown outside the 2-point margin of error. In the February 13-15 round, the former president had 50% of the intentions and Bolsonaro, 35%. From then on, the distance was being shortened – it reached a minimum of 9 pp in the rounds from April 10 to 12 and April 24 to 26.
In the previous survey of PowerDate, Lula (50%) and Bolsonaro (40%) were 10 points apart. The current president has dropped 5 percentage points in the last 15 days. The maximum difference between the 2 pre-candidates was recorded in the round made late August to early September 2021, when it was at 25 pp.
The survey was carried out by PowerDategroup company Power 360 Journalism, with its own resources. Data were collected from June 19 to 21 2022, through calls to cell phones and landlines. There were 3,000 interviews in 302 municipalities in the 27 units of the Federation. The margin of error is 2 percentage points. The confidence interval is 95%. The TSE registration is BR-07003/2022.
To reach 3,000 interviews that proportionally fill (as they appear in society) the groups by sex, age, income, education and geographic location, the PowerDate makes tens of thousands of phone calls. Often, there are more than 100,000 calls until the interviewees who faithfully represent the entire population are found. Learn more about the methodology by reading this text.
1st TURN
The scenario for the 1st round remained stable, registering fluctuations in the margin of error of 2 percentage points. Today, Lula has 44% of the intentions. Bolsonaro scores 34%. About June 5th to 7th roundthe PT went up 1 point, while the Chief Executive fluctuated 1 pp down.
Almost 1 month has passed resignation of former governor João Doria (PSDB) of the presidential race, the general picture indicates null effect to draw 3rd copy pre-candidates. Ciro Gomes (PDT) retained 6% of the votes. André Janones (Forward) scored 2%. Simone Tebet (MDB), Luciano Bivar (Brazil Union) and Jose Maria Eymael (DC) had 1% each.
Luiz Felipe d’Avila (New), Sofia Manzano (PCB), Pablo Marçal (Pros), Leonardo Pericles (UP) and Vera Lucia (PSTU) did not add up enough mentions to score. White and null are 5%, and 4% could not answer.
With 44%, the PT has 1 percentage point less than all the other candidates combined (45%), according to the PowerDate. Although there is a technical tie, the margin indicates that the former president is closer to being able to win the election in the 1st round.
A direct victory on October 2 requires at least 50% plus 1 of the valid votes – that is, those given to candidates. Blank or void votes are not considered in this account.
STRATIFICATION
Lula’s performance in the 1st round is better in the 16-24 age group (46%), among the female audience (49%) and with those who earn up to 2 minimum wages (47%). Bolsonaro scores higher among men (43%), those aged between 45 and 59 (38%) and those who attended high school (39%).
In terms of region, PT leads with a large advantage in the Northeast (58% to 25%). In the South, Southeast, Midwest and North, the 2 are technically tied.
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POWERDATACAST
O Power 360 and PoderData publish every 15 days the PowerDataCast, dedicated exclusively to the debate of electoral and public opinion polls. The last episode had the participation of Nailah Neves, political scientist, master in Human Rights and research director of the project #ElasNoPoder.
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METHODOLOGY
The search PowerDate was carried out from June 19 to 21, 2022. 3,000 people aged 16 years or older were interviewed in 302 municipalities in the 27 units of the Federation. A parametric weighting was applied to compensate for disproportionalities in the variables of sex, age, education, region and income. The margin of error is plus or minus 2 percentage points. The interviews were carried out by telephone (for landlines and cell phones), using the URA (Audible Response Unit) system, in which the interviewee listens to recorded questions and responds through the keyboard of the device. The confidence interval of the study is 95%.
For readability, search results have been rounded. Due to this process, it is possible that the sum of some of the results is different from 100. Differences between the total frequencies and the percentages in tables of crossing of variables can happen due to occurrences of non-response. This study was carried out with the resources of the PowerDatea research company that is part of the media group Power360 Journalism. The research is registered with the TSE under the number BR-07003/2022.
RESEARCH AGGREGATOR
O Power 360 maintains a collection with thousands of surveys with known methodologies and on which it was possible to verify the origin of the information. There have been studies carried out since the 2000 municipal elections. This is the largest and longest-running survey of electoral research available on the Brazilian internet.
The database is interactive and allows you to follow the progress of each candidate. Access by clicking here.
Research information began to be compiled by the journalist Fernando RodriguesEditor-in-Chief of Power 360on its website, in the year 2000. To access the old page with the surveys, click here.
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