The PT ended the 1st round with 48.43% of valid votes; the president had 43.20%
Former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) is technically tied with President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) in the dispute for the Planalto Palace, according to a survey Paraná Research released this Thursday (13.Oct.2022). The PT has 51.9% of the valid votes against 48.1% of President Jair Bolsonaro (PL).
The result in valid votes includes only the intentions attributed to a candidate, excluding blank and null votes. That’s how the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) will release the results on October 30.
Considering the total sample, Lula has 47.6% compared to 44.1% for Bolsonaro. Blanks and nulls correspond to 4.8%. They don’t know or don’t add up to 3.6%.
The survey surveyed 2,020 voters from October 8 to 12, 2022. The margin of error is 2.2 percentage points at a 95% confidence interval. The research was contracted by Progressistas for R$ 190,000.00. It is registered with the TSE under number BR-08438/2022. Here’s the intact (457 KB).
POWERDATA
Search PowerDate held from October 9 to 11, 2022 shows Lula with 52% of the intentions to valid votes against 48% of Bolsonaro.
Considering the total electorate, Lula has 48%, and Bolsonaro, 44%. Another 6% intend to vote blank or annul the vote, and 2% are undecided.
The survey was carried out by PowerDatewith resources from Power 360, through calls to cell phones and landlines. There were 5,000 interviews in 347 municipalities in the 27 units of the Federation from October 9 to 11, 2022. The margin of error is 1.5 percentage points for a 95% confidence interval. The TSE registration is BR-09241/2022. Learn more about the methodology by reading this text. The dissemination of results is done in an editorial partnership with the TV Cultura.
Read the results of other polls for the 2nd round of the presidential election:
DIFFERENCES IN SURVEYS
This presidential election is proving challenging for companies doing research. There are many results indicating divergent signals. It was difficult to know what the real trend is at this moment.
It is important to say that all the surveys are correct, each one within the methodology chosen. Each system can have advantages and disadvantages, depending on the situation they want to determine.
In 2018, for example, there was a lot of “embarrassed vote” in Jair Bolsonaro. Some face-to-face surveys had difficulty capturing this type of preference. The telephone polls, on the other hand, gave more comfort to part of the voters who opted for the then presidential candidate for the PSL (today, Bolsonaro is in the PL).
It is still unclear what impact each methodology has on data collection. But it is already known that in-person polls tend to have a result pointing to a looser leadership of Lula. And telephone surveys (especially automated and neutral ones, with a recording asking the questions, like the PowerDate) tend to show a tighter contest.
In the United States, face-to-face polling has not been used for decades to measure voting intentions at the national level. The extreme polarized environment hinders data collection when the interviewer and the interviewee are face to face.
In short, it is important to note that it is not a question of there being an error in one or another research. They are different methodologies. At the end of this campaign it will be possible to know which system was most appropriate to point out trends in the current Brazilian political moment.
RESEARCH AGGREGATOR
O Power 360 maintains a collection with thousands of surveys with known methodologies and on which it was possible to verify the origin of the information. There have been studies carried out since the 2000 municipal elections. This is the largest and longest-running survey of electoral research available on the Brazilian internet.
The database is interactive and allows you to follow the progress of each candidate. access the Research Aggregator clicking here.
Research information began to be compiled by the journalist Fernando RodriguesEditor-in-Chief of Power 360on its website, in the year 2000. To access the old page with the surveys, Click here.
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