The race for the presidential succession has already entered decisive phases. This was stated by Andrés Manuel López Obrador in his press conference this Wednesday, one day after Marcelo Ebrard announced his departure from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs starting next Monday. “This process has already begun and that is why Ebrard’s resignation because, since he is in the public domain, he aspires to be a candidate,” said the president. López Obrador added that he hopes that the other applicants will leave their posts soon and announced that he is analyzing who is going to replace them. “It is possible that these days, those who aspire also present their resignations, who is going to replace them? There is still time because it is just the announcement, ”he pointed out about the adjustments in his Cabinet.
“I want to especially thank President López Obrador for his support, his trust, his generosity, his guidance and his closeness all these years, and we will continue to do so in the years to come,” Ebrard said in his farewell message. It was also an announcement that as of June 12 he will dedicate himself fully to the campaign for the candidacy of Morena. The internal contention of the party in power forces López Obrador to make at least two changes in key positions in his government. He will have to designate a new chancellor and a substitute in the Ministry of the Interior before the foreseeable departure of Adán Augusto López, who has not yet said when he will leave his post. “The Lord’s times are perfect,” López wrote on his social networks after the message from his Cabinet partner and also asked for “serenity and patience.”
“I have time to think,” López Obrador insisted. The so-called Fourth Transformation anticipates other changes in key positions, in accordance with the aspirations of the Head of Government, Claudia Sheinbaum, and the coordinator of the Morena bench in the Senate, Ricardo Monreal, who have also raised their hands for the elections in 2024. In these cases, it is not clear that they present a definitive resignation and it is considered that they request a license. In any case, it is most likely that there will be rearrangements, even if temporary. Monreal said that he respects Ebrard’s strategy, although he accused the early riser: “I think he is getting ahead of himself.” Sheinbaum, leading in most polls, has been more cryptic. “We’re doing pretty well. I am happy and encouraged, ”wrote the head of government on her social networks.
The key date to clarify the outlook for the coming months is Sunday, when Morena is scheduled to hold a National Council for each applicant to put their proposals for the rules of the succession game on the table. The main train wreck is between Sheinbaum and Ebrard, who have conflicting views on the polls that will be conducted to define the candidacy. López Obrador summoned the four main applicants on Monday in a restaurant in downtown Mexico City and made a condition for participating in the internal process that the caps resign. The party leadership, in line with the president’s instructions, has said that it is an essential requirement for there to be an “even floor” and for everyone to start on equal terms. “If the Council of Morena approves that they should resign, then that’s how it should be,” added the Executive.
“For the first time there is no coveredthere is no finger, there is no imposition ”, assured López Obrador. The president has insisted several times this week, critical for the internal battle and to strengthen unity in the ruling bloc, that he does not have favorites. The president has also kept an eye on opposition movements. The Va por México coalition – of the opposition PRI, PAN and PRD – announced that it will announce the method of selecting its candidate for the presidency no later than June 26. “In the conservative bloc, we already know that they are going to consult with the bosses, with the oligarchs to seek an agreement, as they have done in recent times,” he commented.
López Obrador has also winked at applicants who have felt “mistreated”, such as Gerardo Fernández Noroña. The Labor Party deputy, who has a higher voting intention than López and Monreal according to some polls, has felt ignored and has complained that he was not invited to the dinner that the president called this week. “By excluding me, millions of Mexicans are excluded,” said the legislator. “He has every right to participate,” said the president. He also declared that the process is open for members of the Green Ecologist Party of Mexico to enter as competitors, such as Senator Manuel Velasco, who has already received his membership in the so-called club of the caps. The prerogative in the ruling bloc is to avoid ruptures at all costs.
The Council of Morena monopolizes the eyes and the bishops of the campaign teams anticipate a fierce and very technical negotiation on the methodology of the surveys, such as the questions that will be included and the selection of the polling houses that will carry out the demoscopic exercise. Following the line of other internal processes, it is likely that there will be at least two surveys: the first with a large number of participants and one with a smaller group of applicants, a kind of second round. “I have not heard anyone who opposes it, it is also a method that has proven its effectiveness,” López Obrador said of the polls. In little less than a year, Mexicans are called to the polls to elect a new president and renew the composition of both Chambers.
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