Franco Lombardi (Asati, Tim small shareholders): “Maintain positions while waiting for a better offer“
The rally was expected Tim, and it arrived on time. Shares of the ex-Sip are flying + 25% as we write, also dragging Inwit – controlled by Tim and Vodafone – almost + 5% on a calm day in Piazza Affari. “The peaceful offer of Kkr – tells to Affaritaliani.it Franco Lombardi, the president of the Asati, the association that gives a voice to the small shareholders of Tim – is interesting because it puts a fixed point in the dispute between Vivendi and the top management of the company. In our opinion, these two extraordinary boards have served in some way to increase the tension on the management. The truth, however, is that Kkr’s offer for us is very low, we expected a fork between 0.7 and 0.8 per share, because of this we advise our members to hold their positions while waiting for a better offer“.
We recall, in fact, that the proposal of the Americans stopped at € 0.505 per share, with a total value of the company of about 11 billion euros. The flare-up on the stock market brought the valuation of approximately € 0.43 per share (ie 9 billion total) Tim.
“At this point – adds Lombardi – it would even be plausible that Vivendi reacted with a counter-bid through the CVC fund“. As it turns out, ad Affaritaliani.it, at the moment there are no discussions at an advanced stage between the French and other subjects who could bet on the ex-Sip. What is evident is that the valuation made by Kkr is too low for an asset that is so strategic for the country’s future and which could further increase its weight. So what would be the right amount? For some analysts, 0.83 euros per share could be the limit – not surprisingly what Vivendi has in the balance sheet after the devaluation (initially it was 1.07 euros per share) – around which one could join the American takeover bid .
Analysts look favorably on Tim again. HSBC, for example, has adjusted its target price by almost 100%, from 0.28 (even below last Friday’s close) to 0.5, a few decimal places less than Kkr’s offer. This means that on the one hand there is room to raise the offer received for now as an expression of interest, on the other hand there is the idea that the fund can become a stable partner. On the other hand, with the entry into Fibercop, of which it holds 37.5%, Kkr has shown that it wants to become a significant partner. All that remains is to wait for the industrial plan announced by Luigi Gubitosi, which should arrive in the coming weeks and which should tell a lot about the Tim that will be. More and more broad spectrum and less and less company exclusively of telecommunications. For this reason, Gubitosi is still preferred over those who preceded him.
Then there is to understand that what the government will decide to do. Yesterday’s Mef press release blessed the operation, in fact inaugurating a “marketist” season despite the presence in the share capital of Cdp and the specter of golden power which in recent days has been agitated. So much so that some protagonists of the affair report that it is desirable that the board of directors on Friday 26 November – which in all likelihood will be all about Kkr’s offer – will move in the interest of the company and not only to protect the main shareholder, namely Vivendi.
Accredited sources refer to Affari that it is likely that the French had understood that something was moving around Tim as early as the beginning of November, and in fact an extraordinary board of directors was convened precisely to “find out” the positions. On the other hand, it is evident that the structural problems of the company – the two profit warning already issued – cannot be cured simply with an expression of interest.
“The offer must not turn into an opportunity to make Tim’s stew”
“The fundamental thing – Lombardi concludes – is that anyone’s offer does not turn into an opportunity to make stew of the company, putting on the market the good pieces (from Noovle to Sparkle passing through Tim Brasil) to raise cash and return the investment. That would be a real disaster for a company that employs 40,000 people in Italy alone and which, before the Colaninno takeover, was the fourth largest operator in the world ”.
Finally, a nod to the very short-term future: the board of directors will be held on November 26, the third within a month, for the company. It is true that Kkr’s offer has brought back some enthusiasm, but it is obvious that the work of the CEO Luigi Gubitosi stay under the magnifying glass. In the meantime, we’ll see Hsbc raised the target price up to 0.5 euro per share, on a par with the offer of the American fund, up by almost 100% compared to the previous target price set at 0.28. And the judgment passed to buy.
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