General Haftar against Gaddafi’s son: elections in Libya are the stuff of strong men
The elections for the presidency of the Republic, of course. But even before that, another fundamental vote will take place for Italy. Even if it doesn’t take place in Italy. This is the presidential elections in Libya, scheduled for next December 24th. An eventful Christmas Eve for a country that is crucial for the geopolitical balance of North Africa and the Mediterranean, with a direct impact therefore also and above all on Italy. And among the candidates there are also strong, indeed very strong faces. From Gaddafi Jr. to General Haftar, the risk of a divisive president emerging is high, with the risk that the internal chaos that led to a soaring increase in migrant landings in Italy will repeat itself again.
Libya, after having tried with weapons, Haftar is now trying to vote. With the more or less secret support of foreign partners
The two best known candidates are certainly Haftar and Gaddafi. The first had tried to take Tripoli with arms, he will now try again from the polls. The strong man from Cyrenaica decided to go down in the political arena and challenge Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, immediately after the son of the raìs had dissolved his reservations about his participation in the vote. “I declare my candidacy in the presidential elections, not because I am running after power, but to lead our people to glory, progress and prosperity,” Haftar said in a speech delivered live on TV and expected for over two months: that is, since, in September, he had self-suspended from any military post in order to respect a requirement of the law on the Libyan presidential elections.
“Libya is at a turning point. Either they opt for freedom and independence, or for corruption and chaos,” Gaddafi said. A clear change of tone with respect to what he previously said, namely that “Libya is not yet ready for democracy”. Explicitly supported by Russia, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt and implicitly by France, Haftar has several international friends who might look favorably on his victory which would effectively overthrow the weak government in Tripoli officially supported by United Nations and Italy. Haftar, however, is perceived as a controversial and divisive figure, respected and even loved in the east, but despised in the south and west of Libya.
Libya elections, the US does not want Gaddafi Jr.
Gaddafi Jr. also does not seem to have the charisma of his father. Not to mention that Saif is accused by the International Criminal Court of The Hague of crimes against humanity. His candidacy is sparking several controversies. The United States in particular is opposed to a role for Gaddafi Jr. in the future government of Libya. This was explicitly stated by the regional spokesman of the US State Department, Samuel Werberg, quoted by the Libya Observer. Although some time ago Moscow had leaked support for Gaddafi, including Italy’s “implicit” one. However, it is unlikely that the return of the family that has been razed to the ground is acceptable to the international community.
Libya elections, all the other candidates. Is the United Nations betting on Maitig?
But the candidates are many and with varied experiences. For example, there is former premier Ali Zeidan, in office between November 2012 and March 2014. Or former vice-premier Ahmed Maitig, former vice-president of the past Presidential Council of the Government of National Agreement of the then Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj . A businessman from a powerful Misrata family of Turkish descent, Maitig is known for his liberal and moderate views. Maitig, 49, was elected prime minister for a few days in May 2014 but resigned the following month over a controversy over his appointment. He could be a good name for the international community. Also in the running is a comedian, Hatem al-Kour, the head of the steering committee of the ‘National Project’ party and former Minister of Industry, Fathi bin Shatwan, the former Libyan ambassador to the United Arab Emirates, Aref Al-Nayed. And again: the former Minister of the Interior Fathi Bashagha, the leader of the Party for Peace and Prosperity, Muhammad Khaled Abdullah Al-Ghweilm, the former Minister of Education Othman Abdul Jalil and Fathi bin Shatwan, head of the Steering Committee of the National Movement, former Minister of Industry before the 2011 Revolution.
Elections in Libya and the risk of chaos, the specter of landings and instability in Italy
But there are also those who bet that in the end the elections will not take place also due to the great distance and difference between such divisive candidates. Haftar on the other hand remains a military man, Gaddafi could actually aim to cement his hold in Fezzan. In short, the risk is that many run to divide up power and pieces of Libyan territory, but in the absence of a national and unitary vision. With the risk that you will find yourself worse than before. All this while Luciana Lamorgese reiterated that the flows of migrants are a “supranational problem”, citing the numbers relating to 2021, with 59,000 arrivals in Italy. “Migration issues occupy a prominent place on the government’s political agenda,” Lamorgese said. “The stabilization of Libya is an indispensable condition: it is essential that the institutional transition in that country can be completed with the elections on December 24”. Hope exists, certainty does not.
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