With the country entering the stage of electoral silence, the price of the Lebanese pound remains an obsession in the electoral arena, especially since the currency has lost more than 90 percent of its value since October 2019.
The fall of the lira led to the impoverishment of a large number of Lebanese, whose monthly salaries are now sufficient for only one or two days as a maximum.
Lebanese are wondering about what will happen to the lira against the US dollar, on Monday, after the results of the elections, amid expectations that the currency will take 3 possible paths.
Bitter and matter
Economist Nicola Chikani said in an interview with “Sky News Arabia” that what awaits Lebanon after the results of the parliamentary elections can be described as something between bitter and bitter.
He explained that if the central bank does not intervene after the elections, “that is a problem,” while the dollar is expected to jump to new record levels in the parallel market, which may be 35,000 pounds to the dollar or even 50,000 pounds, which will lead to further deterioration of the price of the pound and inflation.
But if the Banque du Liban intervenes, “then a second problem will arise,” according to the Lebanese expert, because it will dispose of the non-usable mandatory reserve funds in order to maintain the dollar’s price within its limits currently registered in the parallel market, and Sheikhani described this procedure as a “big financial mistake.” .
bargain and pessimism
Sheikhani expressed his pessimism about the upcoming period, saying that “in both cases there is a problem because the balance of payments is negative. Lebanon did not launch an economic plan, but rather the politicians continued their differences.”
Sheikhani said that the exchange rate of the US dollar ranges today between 25 and 27 thousand pounds, pointing to “a political deal that took place to avoid a deterioration in its price before the elections, and the Central Bank of Lebanon was asked to intervene until it pumped dollars into the market, close to 500 million dollars.”
Sheikhani describes the amount as “a very large amount that can be spent on establishing a plant to produce electric power.”
stability direction
On the other hand, banking risk expert Muhammad Al-Fahili believes that the intervention of the Banque du Liban in the market was reflected in the stability of the dollar exchange rate against the lira, expecting that “exchange rate stability” will be the trend after the elections.
In an interview with Sky News Arabia, Al-Fahili explains that “the priorities of the Lebanese, as individuals or traders, have differed after the economic crisis that has hit the country since 2019, as they are now looking for how to adapt to the changes imposed by the exchange rate change.”
The researcher pointed out that “the stability of the exchange rate creates stability in terms of the Lebanese determining their expenses.”
But Al-Fahili did not hide his fear that some affected parties would market the disturbances that would occur regarding the lira after the elections, given the lawsuits that exist between the Association of Banks in Lebanon and the Banque du Liban, in addition to the lawsuit that will be filed against the Lebanese state for this purpose.
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