The CDU continues to slide in North Rhine-Westphalia. Laschet’s successor to the Prime Minister is faced with difficult tasks seven months before the state elections.
Düsseldorf – Armin Laschet will not be Prime Minister of North Rhine-Westphalia for much longer. In the next state elections in the most populous federal state, Hendrik Wüst will be a new face for the NRW CDU to win the election. Wüst is entering the first phase of the election campaign with an uncomfortable mortgage. The CDU slips massively in a survey.
In Laschets North Rhine-Westphalia: CDU loses massively in approval – SPD on top
Seven months before the state elections in May, the CDU in North Rhine-Westphalia has to surrender to the SPD. According to a new representative survey, the Social Democrats are rapidly overtaking the current ruling party in favor of the electorate. The CDU currently governs in North Rhine-Westphalia together with the FDP.
In a survey by the polling institute Insa for the Bild newspaper the long-behind-the-scenes SPD has increased by 13 percentage points compared to an Insa survey from May and thus lands at 33 percent. The CDU achieved exactly as much in the state elections in North Rhine-Westphalia in 2017. Compared to their election results at the time, the state party of the outgoing Prime Minister Armin Laschet has now fallen by 13 points to just 20 percent, and has lost another five points compared to the May survey.
The last Prime Minister of North Rhine-Westphalia
since 2017: Armin Laschet (CDU)
2010-2017: Hannelore Kraft (SPD)
2005-2010: Jürgen Rüttgers (CDU)
2002-2005: Peer Steinbrück (SPD)
Survey from North Rhine-Westphalia: FDP overtakes Greens, Left below five percent
If there were already a state election now, there would be a change of government in North Rhine-Westphalia because black and yellow would no longer have a majority with only 35 percent. The SPD, which came in second place in 2017 with 31.2 percent of the vote, could now achieve a parliamentary majority in the Düsseldorf state parliament with the Greens or FDP.
According to the survey, the FDP overtakes the Greens with currently 15 percent (2017: 12.6), who accordingly reach 13 percent. For the eco party that would be a significant increase compared to their meager state election result of 2017 (6.4 percent), but also an end to the survey high that they had seen in May at 26 percent in North Rhine-Westphalia.
With these values of the two smaller parties, a red-green and a red-yellow coalition and an alliance of CDU, FDP and Greens would be possible, as well as a coalition of CDU and SPD. According to Insa, the AfD would remain in the Düsseldorf state parliament with eight percent (2017: 7.4), all other parties would miss the entry – including the left with only four percent.
Notes on the survey
According to the Bild newspaper 1000 eligible voters were interviewed online from October 4th to 11th. The maximum margin of error was put at +/- 3.1 percentage points.
State election in North Rhine-Westphalia: Can “Macher” Wüst lead the CDU to victory?
Hendrik Wüst is therefore facing difficult tasks. He should not only be Prime Minister, but also CDU regional group leader. Laschet described his designated successor as “a doer” who pursues a “wise and forward-looking policy”. Wüst is expected to be elected head of government in the state parliament on October 27.
Laschet wants to remain Prime Minister until the constituent session of the Bundestag on October 26th. With the acceptance of the Bundestag mandate, however, according to the NRW constitution, there is an “incompatibility” with the office of the state head of government. “From this second on, you can no longer be the country’s prime minister,” said Laschet. The state election is expected to take place on May 22, 2022. A day on which Wüst will probably be under closer scrutiny. (as / dpa)