Kazakhstan: the socio-political keys to the discontent of thousands of Kazakhs

Fourth consecutive day of demonstrations, state of emergency and generalized uncertainty. It is the panorama that is being lived this Wednesday in Kazakhstan, immersed in a social outbreak that apparently began with the rise in the price of gas, but which has a long way to go.

The protests have spread to various cities across the country, from Almatí to Janaozen, as have clashes with the police. This December 5, a group of protesters also took over the Almatí airport – the country’s largest city and former capital. And, amid tensions and social unrest, the Government decided to cut the Internet across the country.

But what has led the Central Asian country to this situation?

Rising gas prices, reflecting long-term malaise

The origin of these protests is apparently very concrete: the rise in the price of liquefied petroleum gas, or LPG, the fuel that many Kazakhs use for their cars.

The price of fuel almost doubled when the State stopped controlling it and began to be set by the market, thus guaranteeing its supply. This started the demonstrations in the western town of Janaozen, which quickly spread to other parts of the country.

This situation put the Executive of President Kassym-Jomart Tokáyev on the ropes, who withdrew the reform and called for an end to the demonstrations.

“To guarantee stability in the country, the Government has decided to reduce the price of liquefied gas in the Mangistau region to 50 tenges per liter,” the president announced on January 5 through social networks.

The curious fact is that, after the intervention of the Government, the price of gas is below what it was a few days ago. But the discontent, which seemed to start with something very concrete, has now been amplified to a series of political demands.

Before what, with a much less conciliatory tone, this Wednesday President Tokáyev said that he will not leave the capital, Nur-Sultan, “whatever happens.” He also warned that the security forces will act “more harshly” against the protesters. One last spring to try to control the situation in the ninth largest country in the world.

The omnipresence of former President Nursultan Nazarbayev

Nursultan Nazarbayev was sworn in as the nation’s president in 1991, and since then many political scientists have pointed out that he has never left power. Not even in 2019, when he announced his retirement from the presidency, but he continued to lead the National Security Council – a position he has had to resign with the protests – and the Nur-Otan party.

Despite the fact that the Constitution of Kazakhstan maintains that a president cannot be reelected more than twice, Nazarbayev took advantage of the nuance of this that states that “the restriction will not extend to the first president of the Republic of Kazakhstan” .

In fact, after his dismissal as president, the cult around his personality grew. On December 1, the Central Bank of Kazakhstan announced the introduction of a new 20,000 tenge bill – about 40 euros – to commemorate 30 years of the country’s independence. The bills included a portrait of the ex-president’s face, on a date that also coincided with the 30th anniversary of the first presidential elections.

On the same day he announced his resignation as president, in March 2019, the country’s capital changed its name from Astana to Nur-Sultan. And, since his retirement, three statues of the so-called “father of the nation” have been erected throughout the entire territory – at the National Defense University, in the southern city of Turkestan and in the capital.

Consolidated as the region’s longest-serving leader, at 81 years of age many citizens accuse him of remaining omnipresent in power. In fact, one of the most repeated slogans during these demonstrations is “let the old man go!” In reference to the ex-president.

There are also many dissidents with the government who have accused President Tokáyev of being a front man for the former leader. Discontent over a lack of political clarity that has been permeating Kazakh society, along with high levels of corruption. And that it has forced the president to remove Nazarbayev from all public office, in an attempt to restore stability to the country.

The Central Asian country’s relationship with Russia

A former member of the former Soviet Union, Kazakhstan maintains close relations with Russia. With a large population coming from the neighboring country, Russian is, along with Kazakh, the country’s official language. In fact, during the time of the USSR, the Kazakhs became less in population than the Russians.

Russia is currently Kazakhstan’s largest import destination and where much of the Central Asian country’s production goes, with a tacit alliance dating back to the times of the Soviet Union.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov himself compared the good relationship between Russia and Kazakhstan with that of the US and Canada. “If you are looking for an analog in the western world, only the United States and Canada come to mind,” said the chancellor in an article published in November in the official newspaper ‘Rossískaya Gazeta’.

However, there have also been alleged “xenophobic” attacks against Russians residing in the Central Asian country. Many opposition figures, such as the controversial Mukhtar Ablyazov – accused of trying to destabilize the country from France, where he resides as a “political refugee” – and his supporters, have been outspoken against Russian influence on national issues.

Fearing a situation similar to that of Ukraine or Belarus, Russia promised its “non-military” support to the former Soviet republic, as the national security forces are overwhelmed by the altercations.

However, Kazakhstan on Wednesday requested help from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a military alliance that brings together six former Soviet republics, including Russia, to put an end to the massive unrest, which it described as a “terrorist threat.” “. After which the country, neighbor and ally, announced that it would send a “peace contingent” to Central Asian territory to “maintain stability.”

The wealth and geopolitical importance of Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan has huge reserves of metals and oil. The country is a member of OPEC +, the association of oil exporters together with countries like Russia.

For this reason, it has great alliances with Russia and China, its main clients. Relations that have generated tensions with the West and for which President Tokáyev has accused the Western powers of sending “a band of international terrorists” to the country.

The Central Asian nation is by far the richest in the region. But, despite having an average salary close to 500 euros, its economy has been affected by the Covid-19 pandemic.

Also, despite its ideological distance, Kazakhstan has a lot of relevance to other Western nations like the United States. Since oil companies, such as ExxonMobil, have invested hundreds of billions of dollars in the Janaozen region -where the protests originated-.

In general, the international community has expressed concern about the situation in the country. The internet has been interrupted since Wednesday and communication with the outside world seems to be increasingly complicated, while violence is on the rise.