Kazakhstan Russian historian links Kazakh unrest to clan power struggles and systematic recruitment of protesters

According to the former professor, President Tokayev turned to Putin for help because his own forces did not obey him.

Russian historian and political scientist Andrei Zubov fears unrest in Kazakhstan will lead to a rise in Islamism in Central Asia. According to Zubov, the involvement of Russian forces in the crackdown on protests is raising resistance throughout Kazakhstan, but especially in young people in the south who admire radical Islam.

“God bless me, I am mistaken, but fundamentalists have no place to escape, and a guerrilla war is beginning in the Alatau Mountains, affecting almost the entire population of Kazakhstan and all of Central Asia,” Zubov writes on the radio station. Eho Moskvyn in an article published on its website.

“And this war cannot be considered a civil war but a colonial war, and even worse, a religious war.”

Andrei Zubov at Mgimo University in Moscow in spring 2014.

Zubov served as a professor of history at Mgimo, an elite university in Moscow, until his dismissal in 2014 after comparing the occupation of Crimea to the annexation of Austria to Nazi Germany and Putin’s policies to the fascist regime of Mussolini in Italy. Since then, he has been politically active in the ranks of the Russian opposition.

Also read: A professor at Moscow’s elite university, who compared Putin to Mussolini, was fired

Protesters in Almaty on Tuesday.

At least dozens of people have died in Kazakhstan during the week on bullets from authorities.

History the doctor ends his gloomy prediction by analyzing the events of the past week in Kazakhstan. The unrest began on Sunday, January 2, in the western oil cities, due to rising prices for LPG used to fuel cars.

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The protests took on a political character and spread to almost the entire country in a couple of days. At least 164 people had died in the clashes between protesters and security forces by Sunday afternoon, according to AFP news agency. A total of about 6,000 people had been arrested in protest by Sunday afternoon.

President Kasym-Zhomart Tokayev canceled price increases at the beginning of last week, dismissed the government, promised reforms and told the chairman of the Security Council Nursultan Nazarbayev resigned. According to Zubov, the surrender only increased the demands and enthusiasm of the protesters.

Tokajev became President of Kazakhstan in June 2019 as a successor chosen by Nazarbayev, who ruled the country for three decades. Nazarbayev, 81, remained the lifelong leader of the Security Council and gave himself the title of Elbasy, or “People’s Leader”.

Kazakh traditionally divided into three main tribes, the southern, northern, and western ethnic groups. Nazarbayev belongs to the most important group of the southern tribe, the Šapyrašy clan, which is part of the influential Uisun clan alliance. A significant portion of Kazakhstan’s elite belong to the same clan, and ethnic ties extend as far as neighboring states and China.

Tokayev belongs to the same southern tribe but to the smaller Kushik clan. According to Zubov, he is a “poor and distant relative” of Nazarbayev and his clan brothers.

“And that’s how he was,” Zubov points out from his peer Tokajev, who graduated from the same Mgimo University. “But bad is the soldier who does not dream of a marshal’s wand.”

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Demonstrations during the spread, Tokayev saw, according to Zubov, that his opportunity had come and began to cleanse not only Nazarbayev of his clan brothers of power. Unfortunately, the leaders of the armed forces and security forces and other so-called power men did not obey the president very enthusiastically. In fact, they “hid or turned directly against” the president.

Kazakh current president Kasym-Zhomart Tokayev (left) and former president Nursultan Nazarbayev in the 2019 photo.

At the same time At the time, Nazarbayev’s clan brothers, according to Zubov, began systematically recruiting violent forces for demonstrations in Almaty and elsewhere in the south of the country. Uneducated people were transported to the cities to put gasoline into flames.

“My friends who took part in the peaceful demonstrations have said that strange Cossacks appeared in quilted jackets, pushing them aside and starting to throw fireballs at Almaty town hall,” Zubov writes.

A Moscow-based political journalist focused on the Ivy countries Arkadi Dubnov says Fontanka news site in the interview the same. According to him, Nazarbayev’s allies quickly recruited as many as 20,000 violent protesters, organized in centrally led groups and armed.

By Wednesday, Tokayev was in a situation where, according to Zubov, he had no choice but to “bow to the Kremlin” and ask the president Vladimir Putin to the delight of the Russian special forces in a hurry.

Of the Russians the arrival of troops on the night between Wednesday and Thursday will raise nationalist resistance in all social groups in Kazakhstan, Zubov estimates. Nazarbayev, who has revived the Kazakh National Assembly to new glory after the Soviet decades, deserves great credit for this.

According to Zubov, every village has a memorial to the victims of the forced collectivization of 1932-33. 1.5 million people died in the artificial famine known as Asharshyk, more than the Holodymyr in Ukraine.

Every schoolgirl knows the names of the national heroes murdered by the Communists and knows that the Soviet Republic of Kazakhstan was ruled by bloody revolutionary years Filipp Gološššokin.

The same man led the assassination operation of the tsarist family as a military commissioner in the Urals in 1918. Gološchok was also born of a Belarusian Jewish family, but the Cossacks are hardly interested in such details: Russian what Russian.

Later, the Soviet Union continued its public relations campaign in Kazakhstan, including uranium mining and nuclear testing.

National broadcast however, more youth in southern Kazakhstan is being revived by Islam, according to Zubov, and the Taliban movement that rose to power in Kabul in August is widely admired. Deputy Director of Security Samat Abiš Satybaly and his billionaire brothers Kairat Satybaly incite this mood enthusiastically, according to the historian.

“In this situation, Russia does not have a good, tactical way out,” Zubov writes. “Strategic is: a complete change in the course of foreign and domestic policy.”

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