Shortly before from Tuesday’s debate in Philadelphia between Kamala Harris and Donald Trumpthe former Republican president’s advisers compared him to the boxer Mohammed Aliperhaps the greatest heavyweight of all time and renowned for his speed and improvisation when striking his opponents.
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“Trump is like Ali. You can prepare all you want, as Harris has been doing, but there is little you can do when you are facing a machine that is shooting at you from all angles,” said Jason Miller, one of his closest collaborators.
However, after the “twelve rounds,” or the 100 minutes that lasted the long-awaited meeting between the candidates for the presidency of the United States, the result could not have been further from that reality.
Or as Democratic strategist David Axelrod put it, continuing with boxing analogies: “This was like the beating Trevor Berbick gave Ali in his last fight in 1981 when he lost by unanimous decision.”
And although Trump left the meeting citing non-existent polls that gave him the victory, all subsequent polls, analysts, media outlets and even Republican voices They confirmed Harris’s great performance against a former president who went on the defensive and dodged jabs and left hooks.
The polls
For example, the Reuters-Ipsos poll, taken after the debate among more than 1,500 people, provided the answer. 53 percent gave the victory to the vice president compared to 24 percent for Trump. The difference, at 29 percentage points, is one of the largest recorded in the history of this type of confrontation.
Furthermore, 47 percent of those questioned said they would vote for the Democrat vs. 42 percent for the Republican, whom many (another 52 percent) found “too old” to lead the White House.
Similar results were found in surveys of CNN, the Washington Postt (between independents) and others where the difference between winner and loser was even greater.
“I would say Harris clearly won the debate. She was able to get under Trump’s skin with her well-prepared attacks, push his buttons and put him on the defensive for most of the debate,” said Republican strategist Ron Bonjean.
The differences were notable on several fronts. First, the physical one. From the greeting – a handshake sought by Harris – to the composure when responding, the vice president looked in control and presidential. In contrast to a grumpy and sour-faced Trump.
Republican candidate Donald Trump.
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It’s not that we’re afraid. It’s that we have better opportunities through interviews and rallies in states where Trump is at a disadvantage.
An important image given the brevity of his campaign (it’s only been seven weeks since the President Joe Biden he abruptly withdrew) and the doubts that his candidacy still raises among a sector of Americans.
More to the point, Harris showed knowledge of foreign policy when speaking about Middle East, China, Russia and Ukrainea –the issues that resonate most in the campaign–, concrete proposals in the economic field and a fierce defense of issues on the domestic agenda, such as the right to abortion and the preservation of democracy, which, according to her, is at risk due to the autocratic tendencies of the former president.
But what analysts most highlighted was his ability to irritate Trump, whom he teased by insinuating that his campaigns were boring, provoking phrases that became instant memes.
Like when Trump said Haitian immigrants in an Ohio town were “eating cats and dogs” or that he only had a “concept plan” for health care delivery.
Of course, Trump also took some hits. Especially towards the end of the meeting when he reproached Harris for being just a Biden clone and that she was now promising a bunch of things that she should have fulfilled during the three and a half years she had already been in the White House.
But overall, there were more bad times for Trump. So much so that on Thursday, two days later, an irate former president ruled out a second debate.
In his characteristically bombastic tone, the former president rejected the possible meeting – requested by Harris – arguing that after winning the first two – the other was against Biden – a third was unnecessary.
“It’s not that we’re scared. It’s that we have a better chance through one-on-one interviews, through political rallies and visits to states than through events where Trump is at a disadvantage,” explained Bryan Lanza, a spokesman for his campaign.
But in the Democratic corner, it is clear that Trump does not want to give Harris another chance, fearing that what Americans saw on Tuesday will be confirmed.
“Trump is weak and desperate. Another bad debate would be the end of his career,” said Illinois Governor JB Pritzker.
In any case, many believe that he will end up changing his mind. Especially if Harris’s attacks – he is already being called a “chicken” – end up having an impact.
The vice president also closed the week with two pieces of news that could have a major impact in the 50 days remaining until the elections.
On the one hand, the support offered by the popular singer Taylor Swiftwhich has millions of loyal followers, especially young white women.
While it is not clear whether celebrity endorsements actually influence voting, in the 48 hours following Swift’s announcement, nearly a million people, mostly new voters, consulted the official websites to register.
Something that could weigh heavily on swing states like Pennsylvania, where Swift was born, and that could tip the balance this coming November 5.
In parallel, and as a result of the debate, the campaign of Harris raised nearly $50 million in donations in a single day –the highest figure since he announced his candidacy in July– which allows him to enter a final stretch with more than 400 million dollars in front of the 295 million that Trump has in his coffers.
Funds that, as we know, are key in this type of campaign, as they allow them to buy more advertisements and make themselves present in the states they have a strong presence in.
Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris during the debate in Philadelphia.
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A tight race
All that said, there is no indication that Harris, despite her big night, is now the favorite.
Analysts recall, first of all, how clear winners in previous debates (Hillary Clinton in 2016 or Mitt Romney in 2012) later ended up losing the elections.
In Clinton’s case, it was against Trump himself, while Romney lost ground against a President Barack Obama who recovered in the subsequent debates.
“While debates can have a springboard effect, this is sometimes only temporary. This is likely in this case where a large majority of voters already have a clear idea of their preferences and in such a polarized environment,” says Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia.
In the same survey of CNNFor example, only 4 percent of viewers said the meeting had changed their minds – toward Harris.
And while perceptions after such encounters take time to be reliably reflected in polls, what exists at the moment speaks of an extremely tight race.
Although debates can have a springboard effect, this is sometimes only temporary. This is likely to be the case here, where the vast majority of voters already have a clear choice.
In national polling averages published by sites such as 538 and Race to the White House, Harris leads Trump by between 2.6 percent and 3 percent. To put this into context, at this point in the race, Clinton was leading Trump by 5 points and still ended up losing.
Additionally, the latest pre-debate polls from both the New York Times and Sienna College as Yougov already painted a tie race or even favoring Trump (in the Times poll).
And the situation in the seven states that will define these elections (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Arizona, Georgia and Nevada) was a nail-biter with Harris ahead in the first three, by one or two points, and Trump, in the other four, by the same difference and within the margin of error.
“The best way to think about this, as anticlimactic as it sounds, is that the race was tight before the debate and will remain tight afterward. There was no knockout or crushing blow. Nor is it clear that his performance has convinced the few undecideds left in this cycle,” said Bonjean, the Republican strategist.
White House
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Indeed, if there is one thing Trump has demonstrated over the years, it is his resilience. Nothing, not impeachments, lawsuits, accusations of sexual assault and abuse, or efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 election, has changed the perception of his voter base, which remains steadfast and seemingly unshakeable.
Likewise, Harris, despite the good debate she had and despite selling herself as the candidate for change, is burdened with all the problems of the Biden administration, of which she is a part.
Especially those related to the high cost of living due to inflation and the immigrant crisis on the southern border, the two issues that are most on the minds of voters, according to most polls.
The vice president, analysts say, has the most room to grow and no one doubts that this was a good week. But at the same time, no one knows if it will be enough for her.
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