For arithmetic, the Bianconeri have a one in three chance of finishing in the lead, but technical values and motivations will also weigh. In the event of second place, Ronaldo’s United, Ajax and one between Psg and City will also be in the urn
A third of the possibilities, 33 percent. This is what Juventus has in terms of mathematics, accounts and scenarios in hand, to finish in first place in Group H, a necessary condition to find in the eighth teams other than those seeded number one that are emerging. Having lost the advantage in the direct clashes with Chelsea means that if the current parity of points remains, Juve would arrive after the Blues. Thus, only three possible combinations of results on the last day out of nine lead to a situation with the Bianconeri in the lead at the end of the first phase: if Chelsea draw at Zenit and Juve beat Malmoe or if the Blues lose in St. Petersburg and the bianconeri win or draw with the Swedes. Allegri, to understand each other, will have to do a better result than Tuchel. A success is not enough for the Lady: she will be the architect of her destiny only if Chelsea do not beat Zenit. And at that point Juve will have to be ready.
TECHNICAL VALUES. AND REASONS
So far the arithmetic, then there is the technical logic. Which does not go one way, but putting everything together and mixing it that 33 percent still risks tapering off. First of all, the value of those in front of you, and the five out of six days played so far have clearly confirmed that Malmoe, who will arrive in Turin, has proved to be an opponent of less consistency than Zenit, who will receive Chelsea. . Again, the precedent between the Blues and the Russians leads to a double-sided reading: Tuchel’s team won, but did it only 1-0 with a goal 20 ‘from the end. And finally, even if the variables would be dozens, there is the theme of motivations: very low for both, because Malmoe is already sure of elimination and the Zenit of the Europa League, regardless of the result of the last day, from play for pride and not for a goal.
RISK IN THE URN
The theme of the importance of finishing in the lead is of course not that of the platonic title of the round but of the opponent who will touch the second round: the second of another group for whoever wins their own, or vice versa the winner. Already certain of the first place are Manchester United, Liverpool, Bayern Munich and the less formidable Ajax (but watch out for the bloody precedent): maximum difficulty coefficient. And based on the last two days, Real Madrid and one between Manchester City and PSG can also finish in the first pot. The awareness remains that the average level of the second band will obviously be lower, but the bad combination could happen anyway, starting from who will come second between Citizens and Parisians. Then, as always, a lot will depend on Juve: last year he closed earlier … then he crashed into Porto anyway.
November 24, 2021 (change November 24, 2021 | 12:47)
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