The bianconere chances to qualify in the Europe that counts on the basis of the previous seasons. Starting from Atalanta’s performance and the possibilities to replicate it …
You say Juve and by definition, having established the exit from the championship race, it takes an effort of reasoning to imagine it out of the race for the qualification to the Champions League already in December, with 21 games ahead. “I did not think about the Champions League quota – said Max Allegri himself during the conference -. Now we have to think about these two games and see how we turn. In January we immediately had Naples and Rome which are two important steps. We must be ready ”. What is the fee required to qualify? How many points did someone who made it in the past have at this point of the season? How many times who was out of the Top 4 after 17 days then made it to enter at the end of the season? A study on how things have gone over the last four years, that is how long Italy has sent four teams to the top continental competition, helps to understand why for Juve the pursuit of the Champions goal has the contours of an impossible mission.
THE CURRENT FEE
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Today the share of the fourth is very high considering the previous after 17 days. Despite the recently lost ground, today’s Napoli’s 36 points have only one precedent higher than the fourth in the standings at the same time in the championship: that of Roma, which in 2017/18 had 39 points. That is the only one of these four years in which the first four at this point of the season were the first four even at the end, to begin a bit to cool down Juventus’ comeback intentions.
INSERT IN THE TOP 4
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In the other three years, however, there has always been an intruder at the end of the year compared to those who were in the top four after 17 days, and it is always the same: Atalanta, twice at the expense of Roma (in the last two seasons) and one to the detriment of Lazio. The model that must inspire Juve is therefore obviously that of the Goddess. Which, however, at this point of the season has never been more than 4 points away from fourth in the standings (in 2019-20 at -4 from Roma and in 2018-19 at -4 from Lazio). Another cold shower on the Juventus return ambitions.
THE YEAR END FEE
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It is true that in 2018-19 Atalanta had fewer points (24) than Juve today (28), but even the fourth at the time had much fewer than today: Lazio were at 28, today the Naples has 36 … And that was the year in which the final share of the fourth in the standings was the lowest of this four-year period, 69 points (Atalanta and Inter), while this year we are traveling at a speed comparable only to 2017-18 which, as mentioned, was the only one of these seasons in which the Top 4 after 17 days were the same even at the end. Another push, therefore, to the feasibility hypothesis of a Juventus return.
THE PASS OF THE ATALANTA
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Atalanta model, it was said, the only road that managed to enter the Top 4 with a great second part of the season. Yeah, at what pace? In the past three seasons, the Goddess has always scored between 45 and 47 points in the last 21 championship days. Adding them to the 28 that Juve have now, in the best of cases the Lady would not reach more than 75 points: in the last two years the Champions quota was 78, and this year, as mentioned, we are going even stronger, we are also going. stronger, so it’s unlikely to drop that much. In the ideal world, the championship pace of Inter last year or the last pre-Ronaldo Juve would be needed: 54 points in the last 21 days. But at this moment, imagining that this Juve is capable of it leaves the sphere of acts of faith, to enter that of science fiction.
December 18, 2021 (change December 18, 2021 | 08:25)
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