By the way, fed up with the crack, but also with politics in general, the liberals had become the big bogeyman for this election. After a regular debut in the 2019 presidential, the disruptive speech of José Luis Espert & Cía It seemed that now it could capitalize on the demands of a public tired of traditional leaders. Mostly young people, opponents, who did not feel represented by Together for Change. And that mixture of libertarian, right-wing, republican, came to measure more than 10 points in national polls. But the mega alliance It never materialized and the question now is where those votes will go.
What happened? The film that generated suspense and even a bit of terror in Together for Change was transformed into drama, with a police edge. When some 20 parties and labels were heading to form a large force and had even already chosen a name, the complaint that Espert had supposedly received a narco contribution to his campaign generated a shock and the unborn “Frente Vamos” went nowhere.
“The break was that”, coincide two leaders who participated in the assembly. “Also the abrupt departure of (José) Romero Feris, who provided his party as a structure,” adds a third. Espert emphatically denies that complaint and even today complains about the explanations asked by some partners. After an initial silence, in the first days of May he decided to give public explanations. He summed it up like this:
The leaders of Republicanos Unidos, led by Ricardo López Murphy, came together in one front for this election. They were negotiating with Espert, but then there was no agreement.
“At the beginning of 2019, in one of the many business meetings in which I participate as a consultant, I met Mr. Federico Machado (arrested this year for alleged drug trafficking)He told me he was an admirer of my ideas, “Espert started.
And he added: “I was just presenting my second book and the publisher did not have the city of Viedma within its journeys in the book presentation. He proposed that I present my book in Viedma, I thought it was fantastic and he organized it. That was my whole relationship with Machado“.
In addition, he assured that all contributions to the Unite force, for which it was presented in 2019, they were in court without objections. “At that time (between mid and late April) the front was closing or exploding. And with this it ended up exploding“, add a font to Clarion. And he speculates: “If Kirchnerism was helping him in any way to harm Juntos por el Cambio, with this he cut himself off.”
The dispersion of the figures
With the bomb detonated, the main figures in space began to search for new directions. Several weeks ago, Espert, almost as critical of Kirchnerism as of Macrism, began to negotiate to join the Juntos por el Cambio intern in the province of Buenos Aires.
“If we want to defeat Kirchnerism forever in 2023, that begins in 2021 in the Province. It is the epicenter of Kirchnerism and economic disaster. Furthermore, if Kicillof sounds like a candidate for president, he must be stopped now, “the economist told this newspaper, a reference to Advance Freedom.
And he proposed: “Let’s all go to a big STEP and let the people decide who the best opponent of the governor. This would be a great opposition STEP, where Peronists, Stolbizer, can also enter. It is not the intern of Together for Change and that is why we ask that the name be changed. We bring the economic wisdom that Together for Change did not have. ”
Cynthia Hotton and José Romero Feris (in the center of the photo) signed an agreement to go to this election together.
Is a open and complex negotiation, in which other actors such as PRO -with the larretismo proposing Diego Santilli and with Jorge Macri resisting the Buenos Aires outpost-, the UCR -which decided to play the figure of Facundo Manes and shook the board- and the Civic Coalition -with the unpredictable Elisa Carrió, who got down to the two days after having risen to the Buenos Aires bid.
“There is an advanced idea that the floor in the STEP to enter the list is the equivalent of what is needed on the outside to get a seat. In Province it would be about three points of the total of the register. With that, you guarantee that the one who wanted to go outside, like Espert, gets inside., add your votes and have the same chances of having a seat, “an important UCR leader explains to this newspaper. That same negotiation will be extended to floors for other positions, such as provincial legislators or councilors.
A similar scheme is discussed in Ciudad and there an agreement is close to being closed with Ricardo Lopez Murphy, another of the figures of the great liberal front that was not. As this newspaper advanced, the former minister launched his candidacy for national deputy for CABA and has already joined Patricia Bullrich, one of his possible rivals in the Juntos por el Cambio intern.
“In the city the boss is Larreta and he is expected to give the OK so that Ricardo can play in the internship“added a source close to López Murphy. In this case, the floor to enter the list would be closer to the 6 or 7 points that are needed to win a seat for a national deputy in the City.
Former Economy Minister Roque Fernández is tempted to run for Senator in Córdoba.
With the López Murphy run, the nomination by the libertarians of Javier Milei. With the failed record of 2019, Espert counts him as an ally to fight with the list of Avanza Libertad en la Ciudad. Other liberals want to add Milei to their own space.
“Everything is on track for Milei to be a candidate in the City with the Autonomist Party, Values for my Country and other forces that we reconfigure ourselves at the national level“, crosses a leader of that parallel armed.
The look of a pollster
Bugle consulted Lucas Romero, director of the pollster Synopsis, to see how he analyzed the “libertarian phenomenon” and what could happen to those votes, now that the idea of a great right-wing alliance seems discarded. He answered like this:
– “Two aspects must be analyzed to understand the phenomenon. On the one hand, this confirms how complicated it is for the most media figures to become political figures with electoral potential. There is a whole bureaucratic and administrative process behind a candidacy that is not easy to bear. “
– “In the presidential one, for example, Espert had to improvise a party, when the seal that he had agreed left him alone. To compete you need a party, legal structure, which you have to set up and conditions you. It conditions alliances by example. Sometimes you end up an ally of unpresentable characters who walk with the party under the arm, going from here to there offering it “.
– “You also need a territorial anchor. It is not just traveling through television studios. .Then, those three figures that were Espert, Rosales and Milei later have to make it happen. In the case of López Murphy, I think he tried to find a landing point there, but he didn’t succeed either. “
– “Second there is an identity issue. The left tends to articulate with a more positive identity, people who identify with certain programmatic guidelines, ideology, proposals. Y the right has a more negative identity: what unites it is the consensus to what they reject“.
Synopsis poll: right-wing voters, motivated so that the Frente de Todos does not win.
– “I point this out because when you analyze the behavior of the Espert electorate or other expressions of the right, such as Hotton and the evangelicals, that sum gives us like 10 points. But when you ask that electorate what they don’t want to happen in the election, The first thing they tell you is that they don’t want the Frente de Todos to win; more than 90%“.
– “And when you ask them if they are willing to change their vote to support the one in the best conditions to beat the Frente de Todos, there you find that the vast majority tell you that they are very willing to do it. For this reason, if that liberal army does not align itself with Juntos por el Cambio, competitive, it seems difficult for it to retain the votes between PASO and the general election. “
– “This, I think, is what tempted Espert, for example, to want to get into the Juntos por el Cambio intern; join in there and not be relegated by the useful vote. Juntos por el Cambio’s agreement with the Front of All To keep the STEP, even with a month of delay, it had that purpose: liquefy the third or fourth forces between the primaries and the general“.
– “So, The Front of All needs to win the PASO by more than 5 points to be guaranteed a victory in the general. Now, the primary can reorganize the anti-K vote. This happened in 2017, when Esteban Bullrich tied with Cristina the PASO in Province and later beats him in the general. For the government, clearly, it was better to go straight to a single vote in November, when you were even guaranteed a better health situation. “