For many years, when analyzing United States policy in the Middle East, it seemed inescapable to do so especially according to the Palestinian issue, assessing how close the current administration showed towards that issue, support for Israel or the equidistance -true or artificial- between the parts.
But that’s over, for now at least. This Wednesday, July 13, in the afternoon, President Joe Biden arrives in Israel on his first official visit since he took office. From Israel he will leave on Thursday night for Saudi Arabia and it is clear in advance that the central focus will be precisely the Gulf.
(Also read: Neither Joe Biden nor Donald Trump seem to have presidential forces)
Specifically, his rapprochement with Mohamed bin Salman, the de facto ruler of the Saudi kingdom who has been harshly criticized for the violation of human rights in his country and for the murder of the Saudi journalist Jamal Khassoghi that he is credited with having ordered.
“This is the dramatic change that the visit symbolizes, the overturning of an almost rupture of relations with Riyadh to the encounter of now, which makes it clear that values and principles on the one hand and interests on the other”, Professor tells EL TIEMPO Eytan Gilboa, an expert on US politics at Bar Ilan University and one of the leading researchers at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security.
(You may be interested in: Migration and inflation, the axes of the meeting between the US and Mexico)
“And this is determined by the internal situation in the United States, which is not easy, due to the high price of oil, and which Biden wants to change before the November 8 elections in Congress.”
Incidentally, Abdulla al-Junaid, a prominent Bahraini geopolitical analyst, a proponent of his country’s and the UAE’s Abraham Accords with Israel, said: “I would say first of all that this administration is connecting personally and directly with the Middle East very late, since he will soon enter what is usually known in English as the ‘lame duck period’, that is, the part of his government in which he is considered weaker, with less capacity to do things. And not to mention the fact that there are mid-term elections for Congress”, he tells this newspaper.
(Also: United States: Biden government delegation will travel to meet with Petro)
“From the point of view of Washington’s regional partners, this visit to the Middle East would represent a window of opportunity for the Biden administration to guarantee itself some success in foreign policy after so many failures domestically and also internationally. But to what extent this visit will succeed in building bridges and correcting them, especially in the case of Saudi Arabia, that will depend on what this administration can offer Israel and Saudi Arabia. And of course Iran will be at the center of any discussion.”
And the issue of the Palestinians?
While Biden will meet with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas in Bethlehem and will likely make various statements about the compelling need for Israelis and Palestinians to re-negotiate, the Palestinian issue is not only not central to the agenda of the trip, but it would seem that the US administration itself knows that it is not something that can be advanced now. To tell the truth, the Palestinians themselves do not expect anything in this regard.
“Nothing significant will come of this visit,” estimates Dimitri Diliani, a Palestinian political and social activist, who is highly critical of Israel, but also of the Palestinian Authority.
“For President Mahmoud Abbas, this will be an excellent opportunity to take a photo and tell the Palestinians and the Arab world that he is alive and well. Biden for his part, he will be able to claim that he is a world leader who does things. But in practice, the most that can come out of all this is the resumption of financial aid.”
(Read more: US: Why most Democrats don’t want Biden re-elected?)
This administration is connecting personally and directly with the Middle East too late
Mijael Milstein, director of Palestinian issues at the Dayan Center for Middle East and Africa Studies at Tel Aviv University, maintains that “the low expectations are very clear and come from the Palestinians themselves, who in their networks and media say that they do not there is what to expect from Biden.”
Milstein notes that since Israel’s Yair Lapid became Prime Minister about two weeks ago, the tone has changed and there has been an attempt to resume direct contact – though not formal negotiations – with Mahmoud Abbas. “But it doesn’t seem to be a fundamental change, the government is transitional, there are elections soon and nothing can be advanced now,” he tells this newspaper.
“Anyway, of course it is good that there is a contact, that is always better.”
Israel and Saudi Arabia
One of the big questions of the current trip, aside from purely American interests in Saudi oil production, is to what extent the public normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia will be announced. The fact that Biden flies from Israel to Jeddah directly is considered symbolic.
Formally, Saudi Arabia has always made it clear that it will have relations with Israel when the conflict with the Palestinians has been resolved, but in practice, the Palestinians are no longer able to block progress, even if they limit it somewhat.
(You can see: Biden’s battle with the Supreme Court for the setback in civil rights)
“The condition is that a formula be found to move towards peace,” replied the aforementioned Abdulla al-Junaid when asked by this newspaper in exchange for which Riyadh would move forward with Israel. That is much less compromising than closing a deal, it leaves much more room for manoeuvre.
But what most worries the countries of the region is the threat from Iran.
“If a defense alliance between Israel and the Sunni Arab countries, with several of which it already has peace, can be shaped, and if the United States joins, the message to Iran is key. It can help Biden to convince Iran to immediately return to the nuclear deal.”
That, however, is what no one in the region wants. In this presidential visit, then, there is some opportunity and not a few discrepancies yet to be resolved.
JANA BERIS
FOR THE TIME
JERUSALEM
More news
Shooting in Uvalde: videos of police inaction during the massacre revealed
Vladimir Putin will ban ‘homosexual propaganda’ on networks and media
Pope Francis: “We are living the Third World War in pieces”
#Joe #Biden #visits #Middle #East #meaning #trip