NEven before the end of the first seven days after the federal election, it becomes clear that efforts to form a traffic light coalition of the SPD, Greens and FDP could be promising. In contrast, the likelihood of a Jamaica alliance between the Union, the Greens and the FDP will decrease.
The Social Democrats and most of the Greens want it that way. Both parties have already ruled with each other in the federal government and are somewhat compatible in terms of their programs. The SPD formed a coalition with the CDU for twelve of Merkel’s 16 years, and the Greens now have some good experiences with the CDU in the countries. But especially to their respective left wing, red-green is much easier to convey than an alliance with the CDU and CSU.
The FDP suspects that this will happen, but cannot be enthusiastic. First, she would prefer to wedge the Greens between herself and the Union rather than being the one wedged between two left parties. Secondly, the Free Democrats are just losing the potential to threaten the SPD, namely that they can go to the Union if the traffic light does not seem attractive enough.
Finally, the CDU fears that this will happen. After the election result, which was bad for them, most prominent CDU politicians, including the majority of the party presidium, continue to mention the fundamental possibility of a Jamaica coalition. But every day more voices demand that it is first up to the SPD, Greens and FDP to try the traffic lights.
It is not said that it will be dark when the traffic light is on
Of course, parties are not happy when they lose elections and are forced into the opposition. Even the Social Democrats, who after the 2013 election, but especially in 2017, pretended that they couldn’t wait to finally stop governing, apparently wanted to escape the shrinking cure triggered by the continued alliances with Angela Merkel rather than really in of the opposition disappear. Otherwise they would not be so happy with the prospect that the (once?) Unloved Olaf Scholz could conquer the Chancellery for them.
Opposition can, but does not have to be, harm. When the CDU and CSU landed there last time, it was even lucky – not just for the party. Just imagine if Helmut Kohl had won the election again in 1998. Then it would not have been a former Federal Chancellor who got caught up in the most spectacular party donation scandal in the Federal Republic, but the incumbent head of government of the largest EU country. That would have caused serious damage not only to the CDU, but also to Germany.
In the seven years that it had to do without chancellor and ministerial offices, the CDU separated from its old guard, promoted a woman to the top and prepared for the next 16 years in government. Should it now only be enough for the opposition again, this experience could give consolation.
What will remain of Armin Laschet?
In those seven years a red-green government not only allowed Germany to participate in a military operation in the Balkans to pacify Europe and a social democratic interior minister who was respected up to the CSU fought hard-handedly against international terrorism.
Rather, the SPD Chancellor Schröder, who ruined his reputation as a political pensioner by lobbying for Moscow, launched labor market reforms that cost him his office, but still serve Germany well today. As is well known, Olaf Scholz contributed to this. Hopefully he will preserve his own legacy should he become chancellor. Nobody knows what a Chancellor Scholz would achieve. But it is not said that it will be dark when the traffic light is on.
And Armin Laschet? Apart from the criticism, the ridicule with which he is covered, will anything remain of him? It would be fair. His move in the election campaign to rely entirely on the fear of a government with the participation of the Left Party may have been born out of necessity. But the maneuver was successful. Red-green-red is impossible. Laschet prevented a government with the Left Party, which Scholz would probably have formed if he had been faced with the choice between governing in dark red or not governing.
The Union would not have to cheer if it ended up in the opposition. It is in the blood of the CDU and CSU to want to govern. But the change between long CDU and not so long SPD chancellorships is not bad for the Federal Republican democracy. Not long ago it looked as if the SPD would disappear completely as a people’s party. There, too, there were enough voices in the Union who found this questionable.
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