The open government crisis in Italy due to the lack of support for Mario Draghi shown by the 5 Star Movement (M5S), one of the main partners of the government coalition, will face its decisive day next Wednesday, when the Prime Minister appears in Parliament and announces whether or not he will continue to head the Executive.
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Depending on whether or not Draghi gives irrevocable character to the resignation that the Head of State, Sergio Mattarella, rejected last Thursday, sending him to Parliament, four possible scenarios are opened, ranging from everything remaining the same until early elections are called, the most plausible option at the moment, according to most experts.
In any case, the political crisis is wide open, with four possible ways out:
With Draghi
The current government remains
The first scenario is that all the parties in the government coalition, including the M5S, show their support for Draghi, who agrees to remain as prime minister, possibly after reaching a new government agreement and voting a confidence vote in Parliament.
It is a complicated option because the M5S is mired in confusion, with different positions on the matter and, in addition, the right-wing parties of the majority that Draghi supports, the conservative Forza Italia and the far-right Liga, have shown their opposition to maintain the alliance with the M5S.
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The current government ends
The prime minister resigns, but receives a new mandate from the Head of State to form a government, which may have the same majority or a different one, possibly the same as now without the M5S.
It is an unlikely hypothesis, since the prime minister has reiterated that he will not lead a “Draghi bis” and even more so without the M5S in the government alliance, which has been the reason for his resignation.
No Draghi
A new prime minister is appointed
Draghi resigns and Mattarella commissions another to lead the Government until next spring, or at least until the end of the year so that the Budget Law can be approved, for which a “technician” would be necessary, such as the Minister of the Economy, Daniele Franco, the name that sounds the most.
It is also a very unrealistic option, since most of the coalition leaders – who are very difficult to agree on – have already said that without Draghi the only possibility is elections.
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early elections are called
Draghi resigns and Mattarella dissolves the Chambers. The elections would be called for September 25 (or the first Sunday in October), according to the deadlines set by the Constitution, and the Government would continue to function to manage the “ordinary Administration”, although it is not clear if that would allow the approval of the decrees most urgent and the Budget Law.
Until the inauguration of the new Parliament and the new Government, Draghi could remain Prime Minister until November. At the moment, this is the hypothesis with the most possibilities, but nothing is decided nor will it be until next Wednesday.
Support for Draghi increases
Precisely, the calls for the Italian Prime Minister, Mario Draghi, not to announce his irrevocable resignation next Wednesday in Parliament are increasing throughout the country, not only from politics, but also from civil society.
The rectors of the universities, as well as representatives of associations, movements and social organizations have joined in the last hours the petitions that mayors and businessmen had already launched, along with online mobilizations and even paid advertisements in newspapers.
“Young people need examples and a renewed confidence in the future,” writes the rector of the Milan Polytechnic, Resta, in an open letter to Draghi, while the country’s largest secular and Catholic social associations – including environmentalists, anti-mafia and cooperatives – they insist that “a government crisis must be avoided.”
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Italy cannot stay without an authorized and safe guide like that of President Mario Draghi
In his letter, published by “Corriere della Sera”, Resta says that “it is the moment of responsibility” because “thanks to the EU funds for the next generation, it is a positive moment, of great momentum. Let us not allow the winds of politics change their course.
The social representatives, for their part, assure that with a government crisis everyone would pay the consequences, “especially those who are or will be most affected by the sum, in a perfect storm, of several crises far from being resolved”, among which he cites war, inflation and the explosion of inequalities, the pandemic and the devastation caused by the climate crisis.
“Politics has the task of going through the conflict to find the best solution, the elections are not far away, but right now there are many works open and the too many urgencies dictated by the common good require managing conflicts and quickly finding an agreement,” they say. Draghi and the political forces that supported him.
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The mayors of the main cities of the country, such as Rome, Milan, Venice or Florence, asked Draghi this Saturday not to leave the Government, as well as businessmen and other sectors, including several maritime and port transport associations, who published a paid advertisement this Sunday in Corriere della Sera.
“In a historical moment like the one we live in, Italy cannot be left without an authorized and safe guide like Mario Draghi’s,” they noted.
*With information from EFE
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