The votes in Parliament from the 24th to designate Mattarella’s successor generate enormous political uncertainty
The best candidate to become the new president of the Republic of Italy is for many in a graveyard. Specifically in Sutri, a beautiful little town located an hour’s drive north of Rome. The mortal remains of David Sassoli, the president of the European Parliament who died on Tuesday at the age of 65 due to a dysfunction of the immune system, have rested there since Friday. The cascade of praise that he has received this week among the political forces of one ideology and another has made various commentators rediscover his figure. They even wonder if it will be possible to find a person who arouses as much consensus as the deceased to become the new head of state, the highest institutional position in Italy and who plays a determining role in the usual political crises that shake the country.
«We must evoke a ‘Sassoli spirit’, that is, everything that he represented in his political career. He had the ability to be inclusive, supportive, open, to listen to others… It is all that would be needed to now elect a head of state who truly represents the entire nation”, commented Massimo Giannini, director of the daily Turin ‘La Stampa’. “When there is such a rare figure, even the political adversary is able to recognize it. But I am outraged that we realize the value of these people and what they can contribute to the political debate only when they die, “Gannini lamented on the ‘Metropolis’ program.
Until now, there is only one candidate who has openly shown that he intends to succeed Sergio Mattarella, the outgoing president and who will conclude his seven-year term in early February, although he may cease a day earlier, since the first vote to elect his successor it will be on the 24th. The only candidate who has shown his cards is Silvio Berlusconi, who at 85 years old intends to put the finishing touch to his political career, in which he has been prime minister four times, moving to the Quirinal Palace, the former residence of the Popes where the Presidency of the Republic is based. The problem for the veteran leader of Forza Italia is that his name provokes in a part of the Italians the opposite effect to the ‘Sassoli spirit’ that the director of ‘La Stampa’ spoke of.
THE APPLICANTS:
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Silvio Berlusconi – Forza Italia.
The climax to the career of the four-time prime minister. At 85, the four-time Italian Prime Minister hopes to put the culmination of his political career with his election as President of the Republic. Despite the fact that he has the support of the political forces of the conservative bloc, Berlusconi’s candidacy is somewhat unacceptable both for the parties on the left and for the anti-caste 5-Star Movement, which have been fighting him for years and consider that his judicial scandals and sexual relations suppose a lousy cover letter. -
Mario Draghi – Independent.
A grandfather who is at the service of institutions. The current prime minister, 74, is considered by many to be the ideal candidate to become the new head of state. The main stumbling block is that his departure from the Government would probably cause the heterogeneous coalition that currently supports him to blow up, thus leading the country to early elections at a delicate moment due to the arrival of the ‘manna’ of European funds after the pandemic. The former president of the ECB lets himself be loved by defining himself “a grandfather at the service of the institutions”. -
Marta Cartabia – Independent.
A woman respected by the parties and a constitutionalist. After 12 men have succeeded each other as heads of state in Italy after the Second World War, there are many who consider that the time has come for a woman to become the next tenant of the Quirinal Palace. Current Minister of Justice and former president of the Constitutional Court, being the first female to hold this important position, the possible candidacy of Marta Cartabia, 58, would be endorsed by her solid career as a constitutionalist. -
Pier Ferdinando – Casini Centrists.
A unit candidate with four decades as a parliamentarian. In the almost four decades that he has been a parliamentarian, Casini, 66, has had time to go from leading the UDC, heir formation of the Christian Democrats, and being an ally of Silvio Berlusconi to being elected in the ranks of the Democratic Party ( PD, center left). Former president of the Chamber of Deputies and of the International Democratic Center, Casini’s eventual candidacy would probably arouse support among the various blocs in Parliament. I would be a unit wannabe. -
Letizia Moratti – Forza Italia.
With experience in the world of business and politics. The current Minister of Health in the Lombardy regional government and former mayor of Milan, 72, would be one of the great ‘papables’ if Silvio Berlusconi chooses to take a step back to bring together the votes of the conservative bloc in another candidate of center-right that generates greater consensus than him. Widow of one of the great Italian oil tycoons, Moratti combines an extensive political career (she was also a minister and president of Rai) with her experience in the business world. -
Elisabetta Casellati – Forza Italia.
One last step on the Italian institutional ladder. For this leader of Forza Italia, Silvio Berlusconi’s party, her possible appointment as head of state would mean climbing one last step on the institutional ladder, since she is currently the president of the Senate, the second most important position in the territory. 75 years old, Casellati held various responsibilities in Berlusconi’s governments and is another of the female names that would have possibilities if the tycoon finally decided to withdraw his candidacy.
In fact, after the meeting held in Rome this Friday by the leaders of the conservative parties to launch Berlusconi’s candidacy, criticism from the other two major political forces in the country, the Democratic Party (PD, centre-left) and the transverse 5-Star Movement (M5E). «There is no name that generates more division. I want it to be clear to everyone: the center-right has no right of precedence in the election of the candidate for the presidency of the Republic”, commented Enrico Letta, general secretary of the PD. “Berlusconi’s candidacy is partisan and slows down the ongoing negotiations to arrive at a personality that is shared by all as much as possible. So I ask the center-right not to insist with him,” said Giuseppe Conte, leader of the M5E.
Agreement between different
The current configuration of Parliament and the system itself for electing the head of state force agreements to be reached between the different ideological blocs, so that the chosen one is the president of all. 1,009 voters will participate in the vote between deputies, senators and regional representatives and it will take two thirds of the assembly to reach a quorum in the first three votes. From the fourth, an absolute majority (half plus one of the voters) is sufficient. If that scenario is reached, that is when Berlusconi will have the best chance of being elected, although to do so he will need between 50 and 60 more votes than the conservative bloc now has. To achieve this, he has been phoning parliamentarians from other parties and the mixed group all week, trying to convince them to support him.
THE KEYS:
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absolute consensus.
Public opinion considers that the best candidate would have been the late David Sassoli -
controversial.
Berlusconi is the only politician who has run, but his figure divides citizens
A name that would surely generate more consensus than that of the tycoon is that of the current prime minister, Mario Draghi. Not surprisingly, his government is supported by a heterogeneous coalition made up of nine parties, ranging from the extreme left to the right of Matteo Salvini’s League. Draghi would indeed fully comply with the ‘Sassoli spirit’, although he does not want to clarify if he aspires to reach the Quirinal. In his Christmas appearance, yes, he defined himself as “a grandfather at the service of the institutions” and hinted that the Government could continue without him. The problem is that the parties that make up the coalition do not have it so clear.
The eventual election of Draghi as President of the Republic could open a political crisis that would blow up the current Cabinet and force the elections to be brought forward, thus causing an institutional break of about six months at a key moment, due to the arrival of funds from the program of European recovery after the pandemic. That is why economic analysts bet on his continuity at the head of the Government. The last to do so was Sylvain Broyer, chief economist at the risk rating agency Standard & Poors, who assured this week that “he does not foresee a large increase in the risk premium in view of the presidential elections.”
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