Hopes for a truce between Israel and Hezbollah still appear distant from coming to fruition. According to informed sources in Beirut, quoted by Arab media, the implementation of UN resolution 1701, which provides for the cessation of hostilities along the Lebanese-Israeli border, remains “closer to wishes than to reality”.
For his part, the US administrationaccording to a Wall Street Journal report, sees the conflict as an opportunity to undermine Hezbollah’s power in Lebanon. Amos Hochstein, a US adviser on energy affairs, has suggested to Arab leaders that the weakening of Hezbollah through Israeli attacks could be exploited to break Lebanon’s political stalemate and facilitate the election of a new president. However, Egypt and even Qatar have warned the United States that this strategy is risky, deeming it unrealistic and dangerous to attempt to destabilize Hezbollah at this time, fearing that it could trigger new sectarian conflicts in the country of the cedars, as has already happened in the past.
According to sources in Beirut, the pan-Arab daily Al-Sharq Al-Awsat claims, difficulties manifest themselves at multiple levels. At the international level, the Security Council ofOnu is paralyzed by divisions among the permanent members, especially due to tensions between Russia and the United States and the deterioration of relations with China.
International attempts failed
THE’Europe appeared incapable of playing an effective role, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, with his triumphalist language and determination to change the balance in the region, immediately dampened France’s diplomatic attempts, triggering a diplomatic crisis with President Emmanuel Macron on the issue of supply of weapons.
On Hezbollah’s side, the situation appears equally complicated. A unilateral ceasefire on the Lebanese front would risk confirming that the Shiite movement has made a serious strategic mistake by opening a new war front, a move not supported by the Lebanese majority. This could seriously damage its image as a “resistance force” while also weakening the influence of Iran, which considers southern Lebanon a crucial pawn in its geopolitical plans.
Furthermore, despite Hezbollah Deputy Secretary General Naim Qassem’s expressed support for ‘big brother’ Nabih Berri, the Speaker of the Lebanese Parliament, for his mediation efforts, this does not imply that Hezbollah is willing to allow full implementation of Resolution 1701 .
Lebanese sources predict a further escalation of the conflict before a minimum of realism can be achieved between the parties. The Israeli army continues to operate forcefully, evoking images similar to those of the bombing of Gaza.
Many observers believe it is crucial to carefully monitor the evolution of relations between Washington and Tehran, especially in view of a possible Israeli response directed against Iran.
Resolution 1701 collapsed due to Hezbollah
According to an editorial by the independent Lebanese newspaper Annhar published in the online version, United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701 ”has collapsed” and Lebanon needs a ”stronger” resolution because ”the current war between Israel and Hezbollah will not end the same way the 2006 war ended”.
Annhar notes that ”the last war, 18 years ago, ended with an international-regional agreement which provided that Hezbollah would no longer provoke Israel or threaten the security of its northern borders. The agreement was translated into resolution 1701 issued by the Security Council on 12 August 2006, after which the fighting stopped and both sides entered into a long truce, which ended in practice on 8 October 2023. ‘.
But ”the truth is that the truce prevailed for almost two decades, favoring great social and economic development of the populations of the south”, while ”Hezbollah strengthened its military capacity in the heart of the areas that should have been free of weapons and militants”, underlines the editorial. ”It is true that Israel has violated the resolution hundreds of times by violating Lebanese airspace, but it is also true that Hezbollah has continued to empty the resolution of its practical content, going so far as to systematically attack Unifil,” adds the daily.
”Even if those who remain in command of Hezbollah are betting on re-establishing a certain balance with the Israelis”, the scenario ”will be linked to the big decision that must be made at an international and regional level regarding the fate of Hezbollah as a military organization. The party as a political and social entity is beyond question. The problem is weapons and its military and security role at the regional level,” he concluded.
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