Es ist ein Szenario, wie es sich die Propaganda der Hizbullah kaum schöner ausmalen könnte: Ein ungekannter Raketenhagel geht auf Israel nieder, 2500 bis 3000 Flugkörper am Tag, drei Wochen lang. Die israelische Raketenabwehr Iron Dome geht schon nach wenigen Tagen in die Knie, weil die Abfanggeschosse zur Neige gehen und deren Batterien direkt attackiert werden.
Nicht nur die Militärflugplätze werden unter Feuer genommen, sondern auch Kraftwerke, Wasserentsalzungsanlagen, Stromleitungen. Der Betrieb in den Häfen von Haifa und Aschdod wird zum Erliegen gebracht. Cyberangriffe setzen Wirtschaft und Regierungseinrichtungen zu. Kommandos von Hizbullah-Eliteeinheiten dringen nach Israel vor und schüren zusätzlich Panik und Chaos. Tausende werden an der Front getötet, Verbündete der Hizbullah im Irak, in Syrien, im Jemen und den Palästinensergebieten eröffnen weitere Fronten.
But it is not the Hezbollah PR strategists who are making such predictions in the event that Israel makes good on its threat and carries out a massive attack on the Shiite organization built up and controlled by Iran. It is more than 100 Israeli experts, including former high-ranking government security technocrats, who had already spent three years studying the consequences of a new Lebanon war on behalf of the renowned Reichman University in Herzlia before Hamas’ major terrorist attack on October 7.
Does Israel underestimate the consequences of an open war?
The study they have prepared provides answers to a question that observers in both countries, foreign diplomats and intelligence agencies are currently asking: What would a full-blown war between Israel and Hezbollah look like?
The results of the Reichman study were not made public. They stand in contrast to the confident declarations of war by the Israeli leadership. Reichman president and terrorism expert Boaz Ganor, who led the study, provided an insight in an article on the news portal Calistech. “We will win this war,” he says.
But Ganor is also concerned that Israel is underestimating risks and consequences and that decision-makers are clinging to miscalculations and outdated doctrines. “The expectation of the public and much of the leadership that the Israeli Air Force and effective Israeli intelligence services will succeed in preventing most rocket attacks on Israel will be dashed,” the article quotes from the Reichman report. “This also applies to the public’s belief that the threat of Israeli retaliation or a substantial Israeli attack on key Lebanese facilities will force Hezbollah to cease fire or significantly impair its ability to continue attacking Israeli territory.”
Hezbollah is much stronger and better prepared than in 2006
Emile Hokayem of the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), one of the leading security policy think tanks, sees a great risk of unprecedented destruction for both countries. “The escalation ladder in this conflict is currently pointing steeply upwards,” he says. “If a full-blown war breaks out, it could be the most intense and destructive air war the region has ever seen. Both Lebanon and Israel will be hit many times harder than in the 2006 war.” At that time, more than 1,100 Lebanese Hezbollah fighters and civilians and 165 Israelis were killed. The civilian infrastructure in Lebanon was severely damaged.
Since then, Hezbollah has become significantly stronger and better prepared for war. With the help of the Iranian regime, which has been arming it for decades, the Shiite organization has been able to significantly increase its missile arsenal. It will therefore be very difficult for the Israeli Air Force to prevent the organization from bombarding Israel with an unprecedented hail of missiles. “A heavy wave of air strikes will not be enough to neutralize Hezbollah’s missiles. Israel will also have to achieve quick successes on the ground to minimize the threat posed by the short-range missiles,” says Hokayem.
Fighting in difficult terrain
It is unlikely that it will be possible to completely eliminate them, because Hezbollah can operate from all parts of Lebanon. And a rapid advance into southern Lebanon would not be so easy for the Israeli armed forces. Hezbollah is significantly stronger than Hamas. It has built extensive tunnels and bunkers, particularly in the border area with Israel.
The geographical conditions there also play into their hands. “The terrain in southern Lebanon makes it very difficult for an invading force to advance north. The main routes run east-west, not south-north. The south-north routes that Israeli troops and tanks can take mostly run through valleys with steep slopes, where they are very vulnerable to ambushes with anti-tank missiles or booby traps or improvised anti-tank mines,” explains Nicholas Blanford, a Hezbollah expert at the Atlantic Council think tank who has lived in Lebanon for almost 30 years. “Hezbollah has decades of experience in this terrain and has had plenty of time to prepare, especially in the 18 years after the 2006 war. A ground offensive would mean heavy losses for Israel.”
Such an attack would also be made more difficult by Hezbollah’s drone fleet. Its recent attacks have shown that Israeli air defenses have problems with low-flying drones armed with explosives. For Israeli troops and supplies, this means that the safe areas behind the front could be pushed back dozens of kilometers inland.
Hezbollah expert Blanford is convinced that Hezbollah, with the range and precision of its rockets, would be able to bring public life in Israel to a standstill in the event of a full-scale war. “There would be no more civil aviation, there would be no more civil shipping either, because Hezbollah has anti-ship missiles with a range covering the entire Israeli coast.” A naval blockade lasting weeks, possibly even longer, is possible. This would be an enormous problem for the country’s supplies.
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has already made it clear in his speeches that in the event of an Israeli attack, there would be “no limits” for his organization. It would be a war without restrictions and rules. Such threats indicate that Hezbollah must not concentrate its rocket fire on Israeli bases and military airports, but on civilian infrastructure: electricity supplies or Israeli natural gas production facilities in the Mediterranean. This month, the Israeli electricity company held an exercise for war and “extreme scenarios.” The Israeli air force hangars are considered in security circles to be so fortified that they could withstand hits, and the teams that repair runways in an emergency are also considered effective.
Around 150,000 Hezbollah rockets
It is difficult to find out exactly which types of missiles Hezbollah has and in what quantities. Commanders these days like to speak in a conspiratorial tone about “surprises” that they have in store for Israel. “Hezbollah has a completely different information strategy than other pro-Iranian groups or the regime in Tehran itself. Houthi rebels in Yemen, for example, basically give you an excellent overview of the material they have at their disposal through their propaganda and military parades. Hezbollah is completely different,” says Fabian Hinz, a missile and drone expert from the IISS office in Berlin.
He refers to an attack by the Shiite militia in 2006, when it used an Iranian-made anti-ship missile. “Hezbollah showed it to the public for the first time in 2019. So, even though it had already been used, it waited 13 years to do so.” Another important question is whether the control systems of the precision missiles in Hezbollah’s arsenal have jam-resistant antennas that can neutralize Israel’s known GPS jamming capabilities. “If not, how much would the precision of the missiles suffer from Israel’s electronic countermeasures?” asks Hinz, who also advises caution in view of the figures circulating.
There is always talk of around 150,000 rockets. It is not clear whether such a number is based on actual findings or only on estimates, says Hinz. “But one thing is clear: the arsenal is massive – from unguided artillery rockets to precision-guided rockets or anti-ship missiles, with ranges of probably up to 500 kilometers.” Hezbollah’s geographical proximity to Israel plays into its hands. “A rocket with a range of 150 kilometers is much easier to build than one with a range of 1,500 kilometers. We are talking about completely different numbers that are possible.”
It is also undisputed that Hezbollah has significantly expanded its arsenal over the years. It has been able to increase its rate of fire from conflict to conflict. It is clear that it is constantly working to acquire newer and better missiles, explains IISS expert Hinz. “For a few years now, there have also been increasing signs that Iran has been working to improve Hezbollah’s anti-aircraft capabilities.”
The Shiite organization recently successfully shot down Israeli drones. Theoretically, it should also be able to hit fighter planes. The Israeli Air Force’s fighter-bombers, however, still feel safe enough to make regular threatening gestures by flying overhead, sometimes at low altitudes, breaking the sound barrier. According to military experts, in the event of war, they would not even have to enter Lebanese airspace to bomb targets in Lebanon.
Israel should be more concerned about its own air defenses. There is a consensus in security and military circles that Israel’s defenses, which are considered to be very effective, can be overcome – through sheer numbers. The major terrorist attack by Hamas on October 7, when the Palestinian Islamists fired an estimated 2,200 to 3,000 rockets within a short period of time and were able to oversaturate the Iron Dome, provided an indication of this.
In the event of a massive strike against Hezbollah, the missile defense system, which also includes systems against missiles and drones with longer ranges, would not only have to deal with Hezbollah’s arsenal, but also with that of other militias loyal to Iran. The Yemeni Houthi rebels may be the most high-profile ally of Hamas and Hezbollah. But their military usefulness is limited. According to experts, the greater threat comes from militias in Iraq, whose missiles can cause additional damage to Israel.
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