Islamic State is gaining strength so quickly, according to US intelligence services, that attacks in the United States will have to be reckoned with again in six months.
The Pentagon’s risk analysis is ominous. The US Department of Defense assumes, based on information from secret services, that Islamic State can strike on American soil in six months. “And if they can do it, they will,” Pentagon deputy secretary Colin Kahl told Congress. This assumption is also troubling for Europe: if Islamic State can strike in the US, it can strike in the old continent.
“Both Isis-K (Islamic State of Khorasan, the Afghan branch, ed.) and al-Qaeda are working on operations in the West, including the United States, but they are not ready yet,” Kahl said. “They will be in six to twelve months.”
His warning reminds the West that Afghanistan still poses a serious threat. The war in the country that started in 2001, in response to the al-Qaeda attacks on 9/11 in New York and Washington, has not been able to change that after twenty years of struggle. Last August, the international force withdrew and the Taliban, ousted in 2001, immediately returned to power.
The Taliban government has now assured the US that, unlike at the end of the last century with al-Qaeda, it will not harbor terrorist movements that could use Afghanistan as a base for attacks. They regard IS as a great enemy, because they continue to carry out (suicide) attacks even after their return to power. These are mainly aimed at Afghanistan’s Shia minority, the Hazaras, but recently members of Isis-K also beheaded a local Taliban leader in Jalalabad.
mortal enemies
Colin Kahl was unable to answer the question of whether the Taliban should be able to eliminate Isis-K before Congress. “In our opinion, the Taliban and Isis-K are mortal enemies. So the Taliban is committed to going after Isis-K. The extent to which they have the strength and power to do so has yet to be determined.” The American intelligence services assume that Isis-K has “several thousand fighters” in Afghanistan.
According to Kahl, the situation surrounding al-Qaeda in Afghanistan is a more complicated issue. The terrorist movement’s relationship with those in power in Kabul is much more opaque. “But it appears that al-Qaeda will need another year or two to carry out attacks against American interests outside Afghanistan,” the deputy secretary said. “We are doing everything we can to prevent that.”
With the withdrawal from Afghanistan this has become much more difficult. The US is now transferring more drones to the Gulf region to use for attacks on Isis-K and al-Qaeda. No agreements have yet been concluded with countries around Afghanistan to deploy elite units from their territory for counter-terrorist operations.
Watch our videos about the situation in Afghanistan here
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