“The tyranny of the short term. Human aggregates and democracies suffer most from it. It means that in many cases the deferral of pleasure is not accepted, you prefer an egg today to a chicken tomorrow“. This is what he writes today on the pages of Corriere della Sera Angelo Panebianco. “Even in situations where it should be clear that by eating all the eggs today you will be left without chickens tomorrow. And, consequently, without any more eggs” he points out.
The race for the White House and the war in Ukraine
The examples are many. “To gain an advantage in the electoral campaign, Trump prevents Biden from sending weapons to Ukraine. If this obstructionist action contributed to Putin's victory, some voters would consider Trump responsible but the greatest reputational damage would be borne by Biden: having wanted to prevent the Russians to win, Zelensky's surrender would be 'his' defeat” he writes. “Trump is worried about the short term, he wants to win the election campaign. But once he conquers the White House, in the event of a Ukrainian defeat, he would find himself in serious trouble. It would have to deal with the risk of Russia attacking a NATO country, it would have to face a China that is waiting to see what will happen in Ukraine to decide how to behave with Taiwan, it would have to witness a “general stampede”: which government could more trust in US support? Trump and the Trumpians are aiming for a short-term advantage. They don't worry that taking that advantage here and now could hurt them in the future.”
The security of Europe
We can then see, writes Angelo Panebianco in the editorial in Corriere della Sera, “the slowness with which the European Union addresses problems that would require strong and immediate decisions (on Ukraine, on European defence). But who blames the EU governments? due to their prudence, they do not consider that those governments respond to national public opinions which, in their majority components, do not seem to have understood the gravity of the moment. They do not want to be told that huge resources need to be mobilized – which could affect the level of lives of Europeans – to face a dangerous international situation”. “Does it seem to you that, especially so close to the European elections, governments can challenge their respective public opinions? – asks Panebianco from the pages of Corriere della Sera -. In the medium to long term, postponing difficult decisions could do a lot of harm to Europeans, but it is the short term that influences the orientations of public opinions and, therefore, the agendas of governments. It is the rule that most people follow: let's dine on eggs today because there is no certainty about tomorrow.”
“How do you get out of this? Specifically, How will Europe, in future years, provide for its own security? They are needed two conditions. The first is that there are no important electoral deadlines immediately“. And this so that there can be “a reasonable period of time to make challenging decisions and have them digested by public opinion. We will see if this will be possible, once the obstacle of the European elections has been overcome. The second condition is that two or three European leaders of the countries that matter most are willing to take on the risk of making unpopular choices“.
Putin's gamble
Putin, for example, points out in his Panebianco editorial, “has bet on the inability of democracies to support Ukraine in the long term. He could win the bet if Western leaders fail to persuade public opinion that we need to accept some sacrifice today to obtain a benefit tomorrow (remove the Russian threat from Europe)“. “Difficult, undoubtedly. But possible. In the past, it happened “she concludes.
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