Having failed to make quick profits early in the invasion of Ukraine, the Russian army is still searching for decisive military victories a month later, but seems headed for a war of attrition devastating to the civilian population.
(Read: Russia – Ukraine: this has been the war that has the world on edge for a month)
According to the United States, In recent days, Russia has expanded its air and naval operations in the country in the face of resistance from Ukrainian forces.which continue to slow down the enemy advance.
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“What we see is a desperate Russian attempt to regain momentum,” a senior Pentagon official said this week, at a time when Russian forces remained blocked 15 km northwest and 30 km east of the capital, the target of regular bombing.
The capture of kyiv seemed to be the main objective of the Russians when they crossed the border on February 24 with a view to bringing down the regime of President Volodymyr Zelensky.
But, according to the unanimous opinion of Western expertsthe 150,000 to 200,000 men mobilized by Vladimir Putin failed to enter the war by assuming weak resistance from their adversariesa failure of Russian intelligence, as they neglected their logistical needs.
Very important tactical gap, the Russian military failed to establish its air superiority in the Ukrainian sky. In addition, “there is a lack among the Russians of a true policy of command and conduct,” underlines a former French military officer, noting a lack of coordination between air and ground forces, and Russian bombardments with little precision.
The history of casualties
Putin needs a deal, and therefore he needs victories.
Although the number of military deaths is impossible to verify, the calculations are impressive: the Russians would have lost more than 7,000 soldiers in a month, according to intelligence sources cited by the New York Times. That is a figure greater than the combined US losses in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Ukraine, for its part, stated on March 12 that it had lost 1,300 soldiers, a figure that is undoubtedly lower than reality. In the absence of significant progress, the Russian offensive appears to be focused on terrorizing and demoralizing Ukrainians, 10 million of whom have fled their homes.
“The more the Russian infantry stagnates, the more the army increases the brutality of its actions and the disproportionate use of aerial weapons,” he told the AFP a European source close to NATO.
Failing to take control of the cities, the Russians are incessantly bombing them in the northeast, such as in Kharkiv, the country’s second largest city, while at the same time exerting constant pressure on those in the east and south. Mikolaiv (southwest), the last strategic point before the port of Odessa, continues to be attacked.
the growing destruction
The Russian forces will probably try to compensate for their low results with more destruction.
In Mariúpol (south), a large port city that has been besieged and bombed for weeks, some 100,000 inhabitants are still stuck in ruins with corpses and lack everything they need. A revealing fierceness of the strategic weight of the city for the Russians.
Seizing Mariupol enables them to establish a land bridge between their forces in Crimea in the southwest and the pro-Russian breakaway territories of Donbas in the east. In this region, the Russians hope to encircle the Ukrainian forces to cut them off from the rest of the country.
“The next episode of that conflict may be even more unpleasant as it could turn into a war of attrition, with increasing bombing of civilian areas,” says Michael Kofman of the US think tank CNA.
In the absence of a negotiated solution, “war of attrition is the most feasible possibility, with siege tactics and reinforced bombardment, as in Aleppo or Grozny“, says William Alberque, of the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS).
Alberque warns of the temptation to force Ukraine to accept a ceasefire under the pressure of Western public opinion, horrified by the images of the destruction and the situation of the trapped civilian population.
“Our desire to end the suffering of the Ukrainians could help the Russians. They will use a ceasefire to rebuild their forces,” he told AFP, fearing that the conflict will last forever.
INTERNATIONAL WRITING
*With information from AFP
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