There is no breakthrough at the front – so how is Putin proceeding in the Ukraine war? British experts fear an attack on Ukrainian trade.
London – What is the next level in Ukraine war? While it is repeatedly feared that Russia’s President Wladimir Putin researchers at the British think tank could rely on nuclear weapons due to a lack of success at the front “Royal United Service Institute” (short: RUSI) another assumption: Russia could rely on underwater combat by submarines to drive Ukraine to ruin economically. According to earlier reports, Russia has been building vigorously for some time Expansion of its submarine fleet.
Putin’s new strategy could aim at Ukraine’s economic ruin
Since the beginning of winter, Putin has been trying to undermine Ukrainian morale by ordering almost daily airstrikes on Ukrainian infrastructure. A winter without heating, electricity and water should Ukraine apparently force to give up. The attempt has failed so far. Ukraine continues to defend itself against Russian appropriation of its country, as the battle over Bakhmut, which has been going on for months, shows.
The experts at the RUSI think tank believe that Putin’s new strategy could be to cause so much economic damage to Ukraine that it will sink to its knees. “Should the conflict reach a point of permanent, frozen stalemate, Russia could shift its military focus to wearing down Ukraine’s economy,” they write in their current analysis. This is done by Russian submarines attacking Ukrainian ships carrying wheat, sunflower seeds, corn and other export products that are vital to Ukraine.
Attacks on Ukrainian merchant ships would have two effects
This would have two effects, the experts write: On the one hand, Ukraine would be deprived of export earnings, which it urgently needs to keep its economy running and to pay for weapons. On the other hand, a lack of wheat and other exports would drive up food prices around the world and trigger hunger crises. This would be convenient for Putin, because it could reduce the willingness of many countries to continue to support Ukraine militarily. Instead, President could Volodymyr Zelenskyy be pressured into a compromise on Putin’s terms.
Trade blockade by sea too politically risky for Russia
Although Russia could also block Ukrainian export ships via normal sea routes, the experts write that it probably shies away from doing so. In the early months of the war, Russia blocked Ukrainian grain exports across the Black Sea, leading to skyrocketing food prices and global protests. A grain deal between Russia and Ukraine mediated by Turkey temporarily lifted the blockade. If Putin resorted to an open blockade again, Russia would pay a high political price, they say.
On the other hand, underwater attacks on Ukrainian export ships by Russian submarines would be more anonymous and easier to deny. According to the RUSI report, a Russian Navy submarine can secretly lay up to 24 sea mines in a single operation. Although the world would of course immediately suspect Russia of such attacks, the Kremlin could deny them for now and even blame it on Ukraine. International investigations may be needed — and “some Western governments would appreciate an excuse to avoid a military confrontation with a nuclear-armed Russia,” writes the US science magazine Popular Mechanics in addition.
Ukraine struggles to repel Russian submarine attacks
Ukraine would be relatively powerless in the face of a possible submarine attack by Russia, the authors of the British report say. The country does not have the technical equipment to successfully repel submarine attacks. Since these systems are extremely expensive, it is also not likely that western countries will make them available to Ukraine. In addition, the Ukrainian military is not trained accordingly. The Ukrainian army is also so tied up and strained by the war on land that resources for underwater defense are simply not available.
Skilful tactics by Ukraine could make things difficult for Russia
Nevertheless, Ukraine is not completely helpless: it can focus on skilfully disrupting and unsettling the Russian submarine commanders during their operations. According to the British report, one possible tactic would be to cover areas where submarines operate with remote-controlled mines.
Another possibility is to equip reconnaissance drones with sonar buoys and light torpedoes and use them against the submarines. This doesn’t work perfectly, but at least “a responsible submarine commander has to take evasive action when he discovers a pinging sonar”. Some drones could also be equipped with decoys that only simulate the acoustic signal of an attack. These are inexpensive ways for Ukraine not to completely ward off a Russian submarine war – but at least to massively disrupt it.
The Finnish Coast Guard, meanwhile, is concerned about Putin’s “shadow fleet,” even one Environmental disaster in the Baltic Sea is considered possible. There is also concern that Putin will also station nuclear ships in the Baltic Sea. (smu)
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