The president-elect of Guatemala set off the alarm after denouncing an alleged coup against him on September 1. He attributes the responsibility to a series of state officials and politicians ranging from Attorney General Consuelo Porras to the Board of Directors of the Congress of the Republic. Arévalo accuses them of being corrupt and plotting a plan to prevent him from taking office on January 14. Why is there talk of a coup? We analyze it.
Accompanied by his elected vice president, Karin Herrera, Bernardo Arévalo was heard forcefully and without hesitation. At a press conference in Guatemala City, he alleged that a coup d’état against him “is underway” “in which the justice system is used to violate Justice itself.” In addition, he ruled that “the corrupt group” that refuses to accept him as president is “mocking the popular will freely expressed at the polls” on August 20.
He had no qualms about giving names and surnames of those who would be promoting the plan to prevent his presidential possession, that of his vice president and that of the 23 elected deputies from his bench, the Seed Movement. In her order, she pointed out Attorney General Consuelo Porras, the anti-corruption prosecutor Rafael Curruchiche and the seventh criminal court judge Fredy Orellana. Names that are banned from visas to the United States, for appearing on the Engel List as anti-democratic actors and those who favor corruption in Central America. In addition, she pointed to the complicity of the Board of Directors of the Congress of the Republic.
For lawyer Edie Cux, legal director of the organization that represents Transparency International in Guatemala, “There is a high risk that (Arévalo) cannot take office”. Cux told France 24 that given “the legal steamroller” against Semilla, the power groups are not going to recognize the political party.
It is dangerous that Congress cannot even give Bernardo Arévalo office, arguing that the party does not have legal personality or that the electoral requirements were not met, Cux sentence.
Also interviewed by this means, the prosecutor of the Seed Movement Party, Juan Gerardo Guerrero, said that they are prepared for the scenario in which the assumption of Arévalo is blocked. “We do not rule it out, although it is totally illegal and not only is it illegal, but it goes against the legitimacy of the people of Guatemala, and it goes against the alternation in the exercise of the position of the Presidency,” Guerrero affirms, at the same time that raises a counteroffensive of legal actions in the criminal sphere.
The legal battle between the Seed Movement and the Prosecutor’s Office and Congress
The most recent blow that the Seed Party received was in the Congress of the Republic. to your bench they stripped it of the title of ‘legislative bloc’, and in its place the term ‘independent’ was imposed. In practice, Semilla deputies were excluded from participating in all congressional work commissions, the committees of bank leaders and the Human Rights commissions. This translates into the fact that Semilla deputies will miss out on the big legislative discussions —such as the budget plan for the year 2024 that concerns the new Administration and that is about to be presented—, and they will only be allowed to vote when there is a parliamentary plenary.
For Guerrero, “the members of the Board of Directors did not have the powers to make said decision” for which “legal actions will be taken in the criminal field against the members of the Board of Directors.” A meeting that is worth saying is chaired by Shirley Rivera, from the Vamos party, led by President Alejandro Giammattei. According to Rivera, it was necessary to abide by the judge’s decision, since “the judge’s orders must be complied with.”
Specifically, Rivera refers to the order issued by the seventh criminal instance judge Freddy Orellanawhich suspended the legal personality of Semilla on July 12, a few days after it was learned that Arévalo had slipped into the second round of elections against all odds.
In this regard, the Semilla prosecutor is forceful in saying that this was a decision “in fraud of the law.” Guerrero explains that Orellana “maliciously used the law against organized crime and the law on money laundering or other assets to make the population believe that the Seed Party is a criminal structure” and that is why those laws must be applied to them. lower range. A legal stratagem given the impossibility of Orellana to apply justice from the electoral law and political parties, which has a constitutional rank, which falls outside of his spectrum, and that it is only the responsibility of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal.
In line, Cux assures that “article 92 of the electoral law says that no political party can be suspended or canceled during the call for elections” and that “legally this is much higher than any lower court judge who orders the suspension of the game”.
However, that political storm ceased when the Constitutional Court (CC) dismissed said order and shielded Semilla from legal protection until the end of the electoral process, which, as stipulated, will be given on October 31. But in clear disobedience to the Court’s resolution, the Registrar of Citizens —which belongs to the Supreme Electoral Tribunal— revived Semilla’s provisional suspension, conferring a second argument on the president of Congress to ignore them.
Arévalo’s party, outraged, trusts the ace it has up its sleeve. According to Guerrero, they are pending the Constitutional Court granting them an amparo appeal against the decisions of Judge Fredy Orellana. “If the CC grants us the amparo appeal, all the illegal, arbitrary and spurious acts that we have been having as a political party by criminal and anti-democratic actors will be reversed,” says the Semilla prosecutor.
Giammattei’s promise to collaborate with Arévalo, before the OAS magnifying glass
Minutes before Arévalo denounced a coup against him, the ambassadors of the Permanent Council of the Organization of American States (OAS) met in Washington for a special session to discuss the difficult political situation Guatemala is going through. To the surprise of the ambassadors, The session included the participation of the Guatemalan Foreign Minister, Mario Búcaro.
As long as it is wide, the table in which the ambassadors of various countries of the American continent participated served as a space to emphasize the region’s concern for the judicialization of the elections. In the words of the ambassador of Antigua and Barbuda, Ronald Sanders, “institutions, particularly the Prosecutor’s Office, are urged to practice the rule of law and not the abuse of rights.”
At that meeting, the diplomats signed a declaration in which they urged the OAS Secretary General, Luis Almagro, to accept the invitation to attend Guatemala City, to be a guarantor of the government transition, which begins on September 4 with a scheduled meeting between Giammattei and Arévalo.
But as has happened in other recent political crises such as those in Haiti and Peru, the role of the OAS has been more of a watchdog without interference. Foreign Minister Búcaro himself advocated at the meeting for the principle of the sovereignty of the peoples and the Argentine ambassador, Carlos Raimundi, recalled that “no unanimous declaration can replace what the Guatemalan people themselves can build for their democracy.” Words more, words less, make it clear that what happens inside Guatemala is Guatemala’s problem.
What is shameless for opposition politicians is Giammattei’s openness to open the doors of Guatemala to the OAS to observe how its Executive collaborates with Arévalo. Because while Giammattei promises an orderly transition of government, his Vamos party in Congress annuls Semilla. And while the Prosecutor’s Office, which has filed so many corruption investigations against him, launches at the ready against Arévalo and company.
For prosecutor Guerrero, Giammattei’s narrative remains rhetorical and his objective is basically camouflaged. Because given the systematic attack against Semilla by prosecutors, judges and congressmen, it is clear for Guerrero to realize that “his (Giammattei’s) mission is to prevent Bernardo Arévalo and Karin Herrera from taking office.”
The president-elect himself denounces a “coup d’état in progress” more than four months in advance, with a view to January 14, 2024. Date on which the image of Bernardo Arévalo wearing the presidential sash can be seen, or not.
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