In August 2021, Ebrahim Raisi assumed the presidency of Iran. He would be in power until 2025, but passed away on Sunday, May 19 in a plane crash.
Under his charge, the country went through one of the worst human rights crises and was harshly accused of torture, repression and acts of violence against women and minorities. In Iran, the principles of the Constitution and government are inspired by God and Islam.
Behind the Raisi’s deathgeopolitical specialists consider that the country should remain diplomatic and strengthen the power of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, also known as its highest supreme and religious leader.
Successor
The first measure to mitigate the social and political impact took place on May 20. Iran’s vice president, in first order, Mohammad Mokhber, was named the country’s interim president by Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. According to Article 131 of the Constitution, Mokhber will act as head of the Executive Branch for a maximum period of 50 days before new presidential elections are held in Iran.
The outlook for the country will depend on the diplomatic astuteness of its supreme leader, said Gilberto Conde, an academic at the College of Mexico and an expert in geopolitics in the Middle East and Asia, in an interview with EL DEBATE.
Although he acknowledged that the death of the Iranian president does generate a political shock, especially at this time when the country is in a complicated situation due to the war in Gaza and the attacks that you have had with Israelsaid that the greater weight of religious and political power in Iran It falls to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who is the top leader of the Islamic revolution and the head of the Revolutionary Guard Council.
Elections
The specialist explained that he will be the one who, after appointing the interim president and despite the crises that the country was already going through, will have to call new elections. Gilberto Conde recalled that during recent years, Iran It has succumbed to a series of internal conflicts and many popular mobilizations in protest of the death of the young Kurdish woman Mahsa Zhina Amini, which criticized local and international society.
In addition, he highlighted the multiple protests by ethnic minorities in the region. “From the regime’s point of view, it is not at all the best time to have early elections or extraordinary elections,” he said.
For Eduardo Tzil, an expert in geopolitics and academic at the Autonomous University of Mexico, he highlighted that the step taken by Ali Khamenei, to immediately appoint the interim president, speaks of a continuity of the administration, but also, very importantly, a continuity in the style of politics.
These people who have just been named are very close to the regime’s foreign policy style. That is, the attitude towards the situation of Palestine vis-à-vis Israel and the rapprochement with Russia and China, the expert analyzed.
Foreign policy
In an interview for EL DEBATE, he added that it is important to mention that the Iranian government has announced that the accident was caused by adverse weather conditions, when he could take the opportunity to say it was Israel’s fault and launch into escalation.
Iran, I don’t know if it is due to the influence of extra-regional powers such as Russia and China, but it does seem to me that it is having a cautious foreign policy to avoid the escalation of geopolitical tensions, he warned.
María Guadalupe Peña, internationalist and La Salle academic, added that Ebrahim Raisi He was a ruler harshly criticized because he overlapped several humiliations and violations of human rights in the regime of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
He indicated that the internal challenge will be crucial for the ayatollah, to try to minimize the effects of destabilization within the country itself.
According to the specialist, the event causes relations between Israel and Iran to become even more tense, especially because in the collective impact it can be thought that it was an attack by Israel that caused the tragic accident.
Let us not forget this attack by Israel on the Iranian consulate in Syria, which later received a drone attack from Iran in retaliation, he recalled.
Human rights
Also added to the geopolitical framework is the announcement made by the prosecutor of the International Criminal Court, Karim Khan, by issuing an arrest warrant not only against Benjamin Netanyahu, Prime Minister of Israel, but also against the leader of Hamas, Ismail Haniya.
This terrorist group that has been documented receives support from the government of Iran. And of course, this may also affect how Hamas can resist Israel’s attacks, as it no longer has direct support from Iran, because they will be busy in other situations, he analyzed.
The United States Department of State officially announced its condolences in a statement regarding the events in Iran and dismissed an escalation of insecurity. “I don’t necessarily see a broader impact on regional security,” US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told reporters.
However, María Guadalupe Peña, an internationalist and La Salle academic, said that the relationship between the United States and Iran has become much more complex since 2020, when that country’s military leader, Qasem Soleimani, was assassinated, allegedly by the United States.
War
Gilberto Conde, an academic at the College of Mexico and an expert in geopolitics in the Middle East and Asia, dismissed the idea that any country wants to try to take advantage of the situation to launch a frontal war with Iran. He explained that said country has a fairly complex security system that never depends, nor does it mainly depend on the president or the Executive Branch.
In any case, he warned that what may happen is that there are attempts to generate insidiousness internally, to try to unleash a broader protest movement, taking advantage of the situation, although he insisted that this also depends on many internal factors that are not so easy to manage. by any external power.
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