the former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (EN) has 51% of valid votes in the poll ipec (ex-Ibope) released this Saturday (Oct.1, 2022), the eve of the 1st round of the election. The president Jair Bolsonaro (PL) is in 2nd place, with 37%.
In the institute’s latest survey, released on September 26, Lula scored 52%. Bolsonaro had 34%. To win the elections in the 1st round, it is necessary to reach 50% + 1 of the valid votes. This is the percentage that the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) will publish the results on Sunday (2.Oct.).
The survey surveyed 3,008 voters from September 29 to October 1 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2 points at a 95% confidence interval. It is registered with the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) under the number BR-00999/2022, it cost R$ 347,659.06 and was paid by the Globo Group.
Read the full results:
- Lula (PT): 51% (up from 52% in the previous survey, completed on September 26);
- Bolsonaro (PL): 37% (had 34%);
- Cyrus (PDT): 5% (had 6%);
- Tebet (MDB): 5% (had 5%);
- Soraya Thronicke (Brazil Union): 1% (had 1%);
- Felipe d’Avila (New): 1% (had 1%).
In a possible direct dispute between Lula and Bolsonaro, the PT would have 51% of the total votes, against 37% for Bolsonaro.
- Lula (PT): 52% (had 54%);
- Bolsonaro (PL): 37% (had 35%).
Search PowerDate held from September 25 to 27, shows Lula leading the race with 48% of valid votes, while Bolsonaro scores 38%..
The survey was carried out by PowerDategroup company Power360Journalism, with its own resources. The results are published in an editorial partnership with the TV Cultura. Data were collected through calls to cell phones and landlines. There were 4,500 interviews in 323 municipalities in the 27 units of the Federation. The margin of error is 1.5 percentage points. The confidence interval is 95%. The TSE registration is BR-01426/2022.
DIFFERENCES IN SURVEYS
This presidential election is proving challenging for companies doing research. There are many results indicating divergent signals. It was difficult to know what the real trend is at this moment.
It is important to say that all the surveys are correct, each one within the methodology chosen. Each system can have advantages and disadvantages, depending on the situation they want to determine.
In 2018, for example, there was much “embarrassed vote” in Jair Bolsonaro. Some face-to-face surveys had difficulty capturing this type of preference. Telephone polls, on the other hand, gave more comfort to part of the voters who opted for the then presidential candidate for the PSL (today, Bolsonaro is in the PL).
It is still unclear what impact each methodology has on data collection. But it is already known that in-person polls tend to have a result pointing to a looser leadership of Lula. And telephone surveys (especially automated and neutral ones, with a recording asking the questions, like the PowerDate) tend to show a tighter contest.
In the United States, face-to-face polling has not been used for decades to measure voting intentions at the national level. The extreme polarized environment hinders data collection when the interviewer and the interviewee are face to face.
In short, it is important to note that it is not a question of there being an error in one or another research. They are different methodologies. At the end of this campaign it will be possible to know which system was most appropriate to point out trends in the current Brazilian political moment.
Several research companies in Brazil call themselves, “institutes”, which can give the idea that they are philanthropic entities or linked to some educational institution. In reality, they are all private for-profit companies. What differentiates them, in some cases, is the portfolio of clients they have and the rules for accepting certain contracts.
O PowerDatefor example, only conducts research for the private sector (including studies commissioned by the digital newspaper Power 360) and does not accept contracts from government agencies, politicians, candidates or parties.
Datafolha calls itself “Institute” and is a commercial company of the group that owns Folha de S.Paulo, UOL and the bank PagBank. He does not work for political parties or politicians, but accepts to carry out research for government agencies.
O ipec (Intelligence and Research in Consulting) is formed by executives from the former Ibope (which closed activities in January 2021). It is a commercial company that, like Ibope, maintained several contracts with the Globo Group, with their research being broadcast on the broadcaster’s television news. Ipec has no restrictions on accepting contracts with governments, parties or politicians. The command is from the statistician Márcia Cavallari, who made a career at Ibope and is now the CEO of Ipec.
The other research companies have no restrictions on working for parties, politicians or governments.
O Power 360 maintains a collection with thousands of surveys with known methodologies and on which it was possible to verify the origin of the information. There have been studies carried out since the 2000 municipal elections. This is the largest and longest-running survey of electoral research available on the Brazilian internet.
The database is interactive and allows you to follow the progress of each candidate. Access the Search Aggregator clicking here.
Research information began to be compiled by the journalist Fernando RodriguesEditor-in-Chief of Power 360on its website, in the year 2000. To access the old page with the surveys, Click here.
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