The fear of a slowdown in the economic growth of the US is consolidating in the market, and has ended up taking markets to deduct two new cuts of interest rates in the United States in just a week. The escape of investors to shelter assets, such as the American bond, has led to the North American debt title to reduce its return to expiration to 4.16%, A new annual minimum that contrasts with the 4.79% that was touched on January 14. At these levels, the debt market already discounts three drops of types of 25 basic points by the Federal Reserve this year, and are expected for May, July and October.
The logic that the markets are following indicates that the Federal Reserve will have to lower the types more than what was expected so far. In a year 2025 in which it had been assumed that the Fed could only lower the price of money once throughout the year, little by little, already measure that the macroeconomic forecasts for the United States deteriorate, investors are assuming that the Central Bank will have to carry out a more aggressive cut.
If on Thursday of last week the markets added a second type cut by 2025, this Tuesday One more decrease, 25 basic points, which leaves the calendar planned by investors in 3 drops of types before it started 2026 has been added. According to the calendar they handle now, the cuts will occur at the meetings of May, July and October.
The ‘rally’ of the bond leaves profits of more than 5%
The entry of investors into the American bond has led the title to cut its return to maturity up to 4.16%thus marking a new minimum of the year. In mid -January, the title was moving at 4.79%, maximums of the year, and the price increase that this movement has supposed exceeds 5%.
Behind this movement towards the American bond, the doubts that are consolidating in the markets around the country’s economic growth are hidden. In the last days, several macroeconomic data has been published that point to an unexpected braking in the advance of the US economy, such as the activity of the industrial sector that was known this Monday with the publication of the ISM survey to the manufacturing sector, or the review of the evolution of GDP for the first quarter that the Federal Reserve of Atlanta maintains, which has passed, in a few days, in a few days, in a few days, in a few days Discount a 2.8% drop in the country’s GDP during this quarter.
It seems that Trump’s tariff policy is the one that is generating the doubts of investors and analysts about the short -term growth of the world’s first economy. According to David Kohl, chief economist of Julius Baer, ”US tariffs continue to generate uncertainty in the market,” and adds how “erratic decisions have generated unprecedented commercial uncertainty, which are affecting GDP growth forecasts as imports increase,” Kohl explains.
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