Brozovic at high volume against Locatelli, De Vrij must stem Chiesa: in front of the San Siro for great occasions, this is where the big match is decided
Max Allegri is right: “It won’t be decisive”. But it will weigh a lot, as Inter-Juve weighed in the last championship, in the penultimate first leg. There was still an entire second round to go, but beating the Lady of the 9 Scudetti, kicked out to -7, gave the Conte band a new awareness. Not surprisingly, after the halfway point, Inter placed a decisive lap of 11 victories. This Inter-Juve will also weigh more in the head than in the standings. Hooking up the Italian champions with the fifth consecutive victory would give a mighty boost to Allegri’s recovery and would break the safety of the Nerazzurri who had an 8-point advantage. The San Siro match, inflamed by a record audience for the post-lockdown (57,000), resembles the last one in importance, but tactically it will be another world.
On 17 January, Pirlo’s ambitious but unbalanced Juve positioned the center of gravity 56 meters from the goal and kept the ball 51.2% of the time. Conte, more humbly, pitched the tents 45.9 meters from Handanovic and, with less ball, went to win by running in the spaces, especially with Hakimi and Barella who broke through on the right. Vidal and Barella, midfielder-raiders, scored, as per the Contian gospel. This time the script turns upside down. It will be Juve that will try to win in a hurry. It is unlikely that Max will concede the field. Against the Italian champions he will behave as against the European champions (Chelsea): low and closed lines. Less space for the midfielder-raiders, then. Against a deployed defense, the movements of the two attackers become fundamental. Dzeko (6 goals) and Lautaro (5) are among the best at opening spaces by moving. We remember Italy-Bosnia a couple of years ago, in Turin. Dzeko initially played as a professor, scored and took Bonucci and Chiellini for a walk, rarely in such difficulty. Edin will try to do it again and Lautaro, playing the wheel, could have fun in the gaps that open up. Bonucci, De Ligt and Chiellini are competing for two shirts. The ranking of expected goals tells us that Juve almost only concedes complex shots, that is, from a distance or from a tight angle. Less is granted only by the leaders Napoli. Opta reports a monstrous 100% of Chiellini in the tackles won. But Dzeko’s achievement percentage is also quite monstrous: 35.29%. The duel between the best offensive pair of the tournament (11 goals) and the unbeaten defense in the last 4 games (including the Champions League) will be decisive.
And of course a lot will say the feuds in the midfield, where history is always made. Inzaghi has dragged along the doubt Calhanoglu-Vidal which also affects the defensive choices, because Simone sees the more protective Bastoni behind Calha and the more offensive Dimarco paired with the Chilean. The former Veronese would have one more function: chasing Church and the arrows that run away, with a reactivity that Skriniar and De Vrji cannot spend. The choice of the Turkish would increase the creative potential in the median, where Allegri has consolidated certainties: Bentancur-Locatelli, backed by Cuadrado and Bernardeschi. Alex Sandro’s punctual advance completes the 5-a-side line that is reflected in the Nerazzurri one. In these first 8 days the Inter midfield was superior. You can guess from the offensive production, Inzaghi scored almost double Allegri: 23 to 12; but also from microdata such as the one reported by Wallabies about the two directors: Brozovic delivers four times the key passes compared to Locatelli, balls that put a teammate in a position to score; the Interista counts the more balls received, the more passes, the more vertical support. Statistics that clearly explain Juve’s difficulties in creating a game and developing an organized maneuver, also confirmed by the trip to St. Petersburg. Allegri has found a good defensive protection, also thanks to a median of considerable physicality, but now he must recover quality of play: this challenge contains the meaning of the Juventus season. Max a scoring raider like Barella (5 assists) does not have it. StatsBomb highlights a significant fact: not the forwards, but Barella is the Inter player who builds more play in the area: 36 appearances (14 ball and chain times, 22 times with passes).
If Inter is superior in the construction and in the central assault, Juve, also tonight, will try to spend its lateral science. The bianconeri cross more. Let’s go back to the two directors and see on which side they preferably unload the ball. Locatelli on the right (37%), Brozovic on the left (33%). It means that we will have to keep an eye on Cuadrado and Perisic once again, protagonists of the fake penalty that brought the Lady to the Champions League in the last intersection at the Stadium. The Colombian has been the true defiled play for years. In tandem with him, Chiesa will dart when he widens the run to reach the launched area: it is the hottest goal option that Allegri has in his barrel.
Also because Max knows that he will not find Inter squashed behind that he loved Conte. Simone has raised the defensive line and center of gravity. Inter are the third team in the league for high aggression, Juve the sixteenth. Allegri knows that Inzaghi will leave the lawn behind De Vrij and Skriniar. That’s where he will go to look for the 3 points, with Chiesa, but also with Morata’s long run and, then maybe with Dybala’s fresh legs. But Chiesa (11.11%) and Morata (15.38%) will have to bring the achievement percentages of Lautaro (22.73%) and the ruthless Dzeko (35.29%) closer together. Because CR7 is gone.
October 24 – 08:34
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