Influencing information Russia is a veteran of the information front – Experts say what may be promised in the spring and what Russia is aiming for

In the pipeline it may be a spring like never before, when Finland is approaching NATO and Russia’s influence in Finnish decision-making is likely to increase.

On Tuesday, the security police estimated that Russia was likely to launch a cyber and information operation against Finland.

Director of International Affairs at the European Center of Excellence for Hybrid Threats Rasmus Hindrén and a university teacher at the University of Jyväskylä, a former intelligence colonel Martti J. Kari both believe Supo’s assessment is correct. But what kind of information operations could it be, and can Russia, for example, really influence NATO decision-making, for example?

Kari reminds that Russia has a hundred years of successful experience in influencing information.

“They see this as a struggle between states and federations designed to revolutionize the entire system of the adversary. Like now, for example, the fact that Finns do not join NATO, ”says Kari.

“The information war is going on all the time and we are already part of it because we are part of the EU that has sanctioned Russia. Military non-alignment does not protect us now. But it is certain that Russia is now 110% trying not to join NATO, ”says Kari.

Security police According to him, the range of means may include allegations of ill-treatment of people with a Russian background in Finland, blackmail of politicians and fake deep fake videos of real people.

One way to make an impact, according to Kari, is to support sympathetic forces such as a certain part of the far right with the aim of sowing discord.

“Another means of influencing has been to try to find people who can be recruited by Russian companies and who can then influence Finland,” says Kari, but does not mention anyone by name.

The third way, he says, is to disseminate disinformation, that is, to blacken individuals and organizations, for example. If someone in Finland is driving NATO vigorously, the scientific credibility of such a person could now be questioned.

Kari believes that the spring will see Russian attempts to polarize Finnish society, for example by disseminating anti-NATO disinformation. The aim of such activities is to make Finns quarrel with each other. This is especially true of various somebody platforms, such as Twitter, where disputes flare up and can be just as easily incited by a skilled operator.

He says the Russian mass deportation may be in the offing. The purpose of all activities is to sow discord and confuse.

“Pursuit is to raise hatred of Russia among Finns so that Russians think that Finns hate Russians. In reality, an ordinary Finn does not hate an ordinary Russian. But trolls are trying to create that image. ”

One example of this was already obtained when the Russian embassy requested reports of anti-Russian activities in Finland. Its purpose may have been to obtain evidence that Finns treat Russians badly here, Kari thinks.

At the same time, Kari reminds that when he talks about Russia, he means its current administration, not Russian citizens.

So what can a Finn do in such a situation?

“The chief said nicely that now the head is kept cold. And so it is, sometimes after midsummer we see how it went. ”

International Director of Affairs Rasmus Hindrén He also says of the European Center of Expertise in Combating Hybrid Threats that Russian attempts to influence will increase. He also considers it clear that the soil in Finland for their success is very poor.

“Russia’s outreach on the war in Ukraine has been ineffective in Ukraine and the West. It must be remembered that the West has never been its number one target, but the focus has been on Asia and Africa and within Russia, ”says Hindrén.

He is convinced that Finnish society is better prepared to influence than many other European countries. In Finland, this is especially evident in the cohesion of society, trust in institutions, the will to defend the country and media literacy.

“They are on a good model in Finland, but this work must continue. In any case, they don’t have to be created from scratch, they just need to be constantly maintained and updated. ”

Which in the case, he believes that Russian-influenced influence will be seen at least on Finnish platforms.

“It’s a great target for influencing because its logic is based on confrontation and loose argumentation anyway. The purpose of influencing is, among other things, to create general distrust, to dissolve the facts and anything that takes attention to insignificance. ”

He does not see much impact on the daily lives of citizens.

But if the impact starts to increase, it means that everyone’s contribution is in the spirit of overall security. Everyone should be able to identify the right information about the wrong and experience a general desire to maintain the stability of the nation, he ponders.

Does Russia really have a chance to influence Finland’s NATO decision?

“Russia has the capacity for innovative, surprising and even tough solutions. It creates a challenge for the target countries, but in Finland, preparations for this are in good shape. ”