The IPCA (Extended National Consumer Price Index) was 1.16% in September. This is the highest percentage for the month since 1994.
The data was released this Friday (8.Oct.2021) by the IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics). here is the full report (736 KB).
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According to the institute, the country’s official inflation reached 6.9% in the year. In 12 months, the rate rose from 9.68% in August to 10.25% in September. This is the highest level since February 2016, when it reached 10.36%.
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According to the Inflation Report of the BC (Central Bank), the 12-month accumulated IPCA is expected to peak in September. From now on, the trend is to slow down until the end of the year, ending the year at 8.5%.
The Copom (Monetary Policy Committee) –formed by the directors of the Central Bank– increased the basic rate, the Selic, to 6.25% per year to control inflation. The next meeting is on October 26th and 27th.
The price index target for 2021 is 3.75%. BC recognizes that it will not be possible to achieve the objective. For next year, the target drops to 3.5%. The market is betting that it will remain at 8.51%, according to the Focus Bulletin – a report with financial market projections.
Analysts also estimate that the Selic will rise to 8.25% per year in December 2021.
September inflation
According to IBGE, of the 9 groups surveyed, 8 registered high. The biggest impact was in Housing, which rose 2.56% in the month. Electricity contributed with an increase of 6.47%. In September, the water scarcity banner became effective, which adds R$ 14.20 to the electricity bill for every 100 kWh. Here is the result by group surveyed in September:
- food and beverages (+1.02%);
- housing (2.56%);
- household articles (+0.9%);
- clothing (+0.31%);
- transport (+1.82%);
- health and personal care (+0.39%);
- personal expenses (+0.56%);
- education (+0.28%);
- communication (+0.23%).