SAO PAULO (Reuters) – The official inflation preview jumped 1.20% in October, well above analysts’ forecasts and the September rate, marking the highest reading for the month since 1995, amid a price scenario each increasingly pressured by the deterioration in the perception of fiscal risk.
The 1.20% rate for the Extended National Consumer Price Index 15 (IPCA-15) was the highest for any month since February 2016 (+1.42%), according to data released by the IBGE on Tuesday . In October 2020, the index had increased by 0.94%.
With this month’s result, the IPCA-15 accumulates an increase of 8.30% in the year. In 12 months, the rate was 10.34%, above the 10.05% registered in the same period until September.
The data came in well above the medians of estimates obtained in a Reuters survey, which indicated a rise of 0.97% in the month and 10.09% in 12 months.
Eight of the nine groups of products and services surveyed showed an increase in costs, with the biggest impact (0.43 percentage point) and the biggest variation (+2.06%) coming from Transport.
The Housing group followed, with a rise of 1.87% adding 0.30 percentage point to the full IPCA-15. Inflation in this group accelerated compared to September, when it had reached 1.55%.
The preview of inflation was also pressured by Food and beverages, which saw a rise of 1.38% in prices, yet another group to show an increase in cost increases — in September, it had registered an increase of 1.27%.
Variation Group (%) Impact
(pp)
September October September October
General Index 1.14 1.2 1.14 1.2
Food and 1.27 1.38 0.27 0.29
drinks
Housing 1.55 1.87 0.25 0.3
Articles from 1.23 0.53 0.05 0.02
residence
Clothing 0.54 1.32 0.02 0.05
Transport 2.22 2.06 0.46 0.43
Health and 0.33 -0.01 0.04 0
care
personal
Expenses 0.48 0.77 0.05 0.08
personal
Education -0.01 0.09 0 0.01
Communication 0.02 0.34 0 0.02
Source: IBGE, Directorate of Research, Coordination of Indexes of
Prices, National System of Consumer Price Indexes.
(By José de Castro)
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