According to information provided by the Confederation of National Chambers of Commerce, Services and Tourism (Concanaco)and the National Institute of Geography and Statistics (Inegi)Mexico is having serious problems in being able to sustain the goal that the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) had to maintain inflation at 3% during 2024, since for the first half of May it stood at 4.78%.
In comparison with inflation From the last fortnight of April, which was 4.63%, a percentage difference of 0.15% is demonstrated.
The most harmful variations
According to Inegi figures, the annual variation disclosed in the Index National Consumer Prices (INPC) was 4.78% and that of the underlying and non-core indices was 4.31% and 6.27%, respectively.
This occurred due to some price variations that stood out for their impact on general inflation, such as tomato, which showed a biweekly variation of 10.44% and which had a direct biweekly impact of 0.073 percentage points on the increase in the INPC. Although this was the product that had the most impact, there were also some more that affected such as the serrano chili, which had a biweekly variation of 13.99% and an incidence of 0.025, as well as own housing, which had a variation of 0.22% and an incidence of 0.023.
distant goal
It is notable to mention that with this new figure, the Bank of Mexico is moving further and further away from its goal and the estimates that were contemplated by financial market specialists and the company itself are also moving away. Bank of Mexico They expect to close 2024 with an inflation of between 3.6% – 4.0% annually, a figure that is currently exceeded by 0.8%.
In recent years, since the pandemic, it has been difficult to maintain a inflation below the desired, although in 2023 a decrease of 40% was achieved by reducing inflation from 7.82% to 4.66%, the reality is that from 2023 to 2024 it would have only been possible to decrease 0.03% and now with the new update This figure shot up again to almost 5%.
Although this figure is not even close to inflations highest we have had in the historical record if it shows resistance.
The reason for this high resistance, according to Concanaco, It is due to the fact that the prices of services have been more reluctant to decrease, given greater demand from the domestic market, a strong labor market, transfers from social programs and remittances from migrants that go directly to consumption.
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